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What does the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal mean for the Caucasus?
The peace deal signifies a major step toward ending long-standing hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It includes a 99-year US lease for a strategic corridor through Armenia, connecting Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan, bypassing Iran. This could enhance regional connectivity and reduce conflict risks, but also shifts regional power balances, especially with US involvement challenging Russia and Iran's influence.
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How will the strategic corridor TRIPP impact regional politics?
The corridor, known as TRIPP, is set to become a vital transit route, potentially boosting economic ties and regional cooperation. However, it also raises concerns among Iran and Russia, who see it as a challenge to their influence. The corridor could alter transit dynamics in the region, making it more geopolitically significant and possibly leading to new alliances or tensions.
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What are Iran and Russia's concerns about the peace agreement?
Both Iran and Russia have expressed concerns about the deal, mainly because it undermines their regional influence and control over transit routes. Iran has warned it might block the corridor, fearing increased Western and US presence. Russia, which has traditionally mediated in the region, is cautious about losing its influence and stability in the South Caucasus.
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Why is Turkey welcoming the peace deal now?
Turkey supports the agreement as it aligns with its interests in improving regional connectivity and strengthening its influence in the South Caucasus. Turkey sees the deal as an opportunity to foster better relations with Azerbaijan and expand its strategic reach, while also promoting regional stability from its perspective.
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Could this peace deal lead to more stability or more conflict?
While the deal aims to bring peace, regional tensions remain. The involvement of the US, Turkey, and other powers could either stabilize the region or spark new conflicts if opposing countries like Iran or Russia oppose the terms. The long-term success depends on how well regional players manage their interests and address concerns.