Recent disruptions in fertilizer supplies, driven by conflicts like the Iran war and rising energy costs, are having a major impact on global food prices. As fertilizer shortages threaten crop yields, many wonder how this will affect the cost of food in the coming months. Below, we explore key questions about the current supply chain issues and their broader implications for food security worldwide.
Fertilizer shortages are mainly caused by disruptions in shipping routes, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, and increased raw material costs due to conflicts like the Iran war. Rising energy prices and reduced production in key regions like Iran and Qatar have also contributed to the global supply crunch.
Fertilizer shortages lead to lower crop yields because farmers cannot access enough nutrients for optimal growth. The potential reduction in yields—up to 50% in some regions—means less food is produced, which drives up prices worldwide, especially in poorer nations that rely heavily on imported food.
Countries that depend heavily on imported fertilizers and food imports are most at risk. This includes many developing nations in Africa, parts of Asia, and some regions in Latin America. These countries often lack the resources to quickly adapt to supply chain shocks, making them particularly vulnerable.
Resolving global supply chain disruptions takes time. While some measures, like alternative shipping routes or increased domestic production, can help, it’s unlikely that these issues will be fully resolved in the short term. Experts warn that ongoing conflicts and logistical challenges will continue to affect food prices for months or even years.
Many experts forecast that food prices will remain high or increase further in 2026 due to ongoing fertilizer shortages and supply chain disruptions. The combination of rising input costs, crop yield reductions, and geopolitical tensions suggests that consumers worldwide could face higher grocery bills in the coming months.
The war in Iran has driven up fertilizer prices and disrupted a key planting season, which supply chain scholars say will affect food prices globally.