Colombia is facing its worst humanitarian surge in a decade as displacement and violence rise ahead of the 2025-2026 political timeline. This explainer distills what’s driving the displacement, how tactics have shifted among armed groups, and who’s most at risk—so you can understand the patterns shaping Colombia’s conflict now and into the near future.
Displacement has surged due to a combination of intensified armed conflict, competition over cocaine trade routes, illegal mining, and intensified political violence as elections approach. The ICRC notes the situation as a progressive deterioration dating back to 2018, with 2025 showing the worst humanitarian impact in a decade.
Since the 2016 peace deal, smaller armed groups and dissident factions have adapted by tightening control on territories, increasing lockdowns, and targeting civilians and security personnel. This has led to more frequent attacks, use of improvised explosive devices, and strategic violence linked to drug trafficking and territorial control.
Political tensions surrounding the May 31 presidential election are fueling violence and targeting of campaign staff and civilians. Analysts connect spikes in killings and attacks to electoral competition, with security forces promising firm action, but reporting indicates violence continues to disrupt communities and influence voter sentiment.
Regions like Norte de Santander and other cocaine-route corridors are hotspots, with civilians, community leaders, and police officers among the most affected. Displacement is widespread, with many families uprooted from rural areas to urban centers in search of safety as clashes intensify.
The ICRC highlights that 2025 marks the worst humanitarian consequences in a decade, including a doubling of displacement to around 235,000 people, a rise in explosive-related injuries, and tighter civilian confinement as armed groups press their control. International reporting from Reuters, AP, and Al Jazeera corroborates these trends and frames them within the broader political and security dynamics.
Experts point to competition over cocaine trade routes and illegal mining as major drivers of the renewed violence. Control over these economic networks fuels clashes between state forces, guerrilla factions, and criminal groups, worsening civilian harm and displacement.
The attacks by gunmen come as the government continues a drive to crack down on organised crime.