What's happened
Ukraine's drone operations have significantly increased in 2025, with Ukrainian officials claiming December saw around 33,000 Russian casualties, nearly matching Russia's monthly recruitment. Russia's losses are high, but its larger population allows continued recruitment, while Ukraine faces manpower shortages amid ongoing conflict.
What's behind the headline?
The high casualty figures reported by Ukraine and Western sources highlight the severe attrition Russia faces, with estimates of over 1.1 million casualties since 2022. Ukraine's strategic focus on drone warfare has proven highly effective, responsible for destroying a majority of targets, including sophisticated equipment. Russia's reliance on informal recruitment and efforts to avoid large mobilizations suggest an awareness of the unsustainability of current losses. The disparity in population pools means Russia can continue to replenish its forces, but the sustained high casualties will eventually strain its military and political stability. Ukraine's emphasis on drone technology signals a shift towards asymmetric warfare, which will likely continue to erode Russian capabilities and territorial gains. The ongoing attrition and technological edge for Ukraine suggest a protracted conflict with no clear resolution in sight, but with Ukraine gaining ground through innovative tactics.
What the papers say
Business Insider UK reports on the high Russian casualties, estimating 20,000 to 25,000 deaths monthly, with comparisons to Soviet losses in Afghanistan. Ukrainian officials confirm significant losses, with around 33,000 casualties in December alone, driven by drone warfare. Al Jazeera highlights Ukraine's claims of 35,000 Russian casualties in December, emphasizing the role of unmanned systems. The Institute for the Study of War notes Russia's continued territorial gains are limited and inconsistent, with ongoing efforts to mobilize reserves and increase drone production. The contrasting assessments underscore the ongoing attrition and strategic shifts in the conflict, with Ukraine leveraging drone technology to offset manpower shortages and Russia relying on informal recruitment to sustain its forces.
How we got here
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, both sides have experienced heavy casualties. Ukraine has relied heavily on drones for offensive and defensive operations, while Russia has avoided large-scale mobilization, instead using covert recruitment. The conflict has led to significant attrition, with Ukraine's drone capabilities expanding rapidly in 2025.
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Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It is the second-largest European country after Russia, which borders it to the east and northeast.