What's happened
On September 23, 2025, after meeting Ukrainian President Zelensky at the UN General Assembly, US President Donald Trump declared that Ukraine could reclaim all lost territory from Russia, calling Russia a "paper tiger" facing economic troubles. Trump also supported NATO shooting down Russian aircraft violating airspace, marking a sharp policy shift from his earlier stance. Russia and European leaders responded cautiously amid ongoing conflict and airspace incursions.
What's behind the headline?
Trump's Policy Reversal Signals Strategic Realignment
Donald Trump's recent statements mark a decisive pivot from his earlier ambivalence and calls for territorial concessions by Ukraine. His endorsement of Ukraine's ability to "WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form" and support for NATO's right to shoot down Russian aircraft represent a hardening stance aligned with European allies' positions.
Motivations Behind the Shift
- Domestic Political Pressure: Facing criticism for his previous Russia-friendly posture, Trump appears to recalibrate to appeal to a broader US and international audience.
- Frustration with Putin: Trump's repeated claims that "Putin has let me down" and labeling Russia a "paper tiger" reflect disillusionment with the Kremlin's resilience and leadership.
- European Influence: Visits by European leaders to Washington and their increased military aid to Ukraine have likely influenced Trump's recalibration.
Implications for the Conflict
- Increased Military Support: Trump's commitment to supplying weapons to NATO for Ukraine suggests sustained or increased military aid.
- Heightened NATO-Russia Tensions: Support for shooting down Russian aircraft escalates the risk of direct NATO-Russia confrontations.
- Diplomatic Uncertainty: Trump's ambivalence about Putin's reliability and shifting deadlines for decisions on sanctions inject unpredictability into diplomatic efforts.
Broader Geopolitical Context
- Russia's repeated airspace violations over NATO countries and Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian infrastructure underscore the conflict's regional spillover.
- Zelensky's calls for global AI weapons regulation and warnings about Russian threats to Moldova highlight the conflict's expanding security dimensions.
Forecast
The US under Trump will likely maintain robust support for Ukraine, pressuring Russia economically and militarily. However, Trump's unpredictable approach and emphasis on deals may complicate coordinated Western strategies. NATO's readiness to defend airspace will be tested, increasing the risk of escalation. The conflict remains protracted, with diplomatic breakthroughs unlikely in the near term.
What the papers say
Bel Trew of The Independent highlights Trump's dramatic shift from his February Oval Office meeting, where he berated Zelensky and suggested Ukraine cede territory, to now backing Ukraine's full territorial recovery and calling Russia a "paper tiger." Trew notes Trump's frustration with Putin and Europe's role in influencing his stance. Al Jazeera reports Zelensky's positive reception of Trump's support and his warnings about Russian drone incursions into Europe, emphasizing the conflict's regional impact. The Moscow Times quotes Trump calling Russia's war "aimless" and Putin's leadership "bad," while Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismisses Trump's claims, insisting Russia will continue its offensive and calling it a "bear," not a "paper tiger." The Guardian details Trump's demands for Europe to stop buying Russian energy and his readiness to supply weapons to NATO, underscoring the economic warfare dimension. Politico and South China Morning Post capture Trump's endorsement of NATO shooting down Russian aircraft, a significant escalation in rhetoric. These sources collectively illustrate a US policy shift toward stronger support for Ukraine, increased pressure on Russia, and heightened NATO-Russia tensions, while also reflecting ongoing diplomatic uncertainties and regional security concerns.
How we got here
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the conflict has caused significant territorial changes and international tensions. The US and NATO have supported Ukraine with military aid, while Russia has faced sanctions and military setbacks. Trump's previous stance was more conciliatory toward Russia, but recent escalations and diplomatic efforts have shifted US policy toward stronger support for Ukraine.
Go deeper
- Why did Trump change his stance on Ukraine?
- What are the risks of NATO shooting down Russian aircraft?
- How is Russia responding to increased Western support for Ukraine?
Common question
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What Did Trump Say About Ukraine's Territory at the UN?
Recent statements by former President Donald Trump at the UN have sparked widespread interest in his stance on Ukraine's territorial integrity. His comments mark a notable shift from previous cautious remarks, emphasizing full support for Ukraine to reclaim all territory lost since 2022. This has raised questions about how U.S. support for Ukraine is evolving and what implications this might have for the ongoing conflict. Below, we explore the key points of Trump's recent remarks and what they mean for international relations and NATO's role in the conflict.
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Will Ukraine Really Reclaim All Lost Territory from Russia?
The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has raised many questions about the future of territorial control. Recent statements from US President Donald Trump and shifts in NATO policies have added new layers to this complex situation. People are wondering if Ukraine can actually regain all the land it has lost, what international support looks like, and how Russia and Europe are responding. Below, we explore these pressing questions and what they mean for regional stability and global politics.
More on these topics
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Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
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Russia, or the Russian Federation, is a transcontinental country located in Eastern Europe and Northern Asia. Covering an area of 17,125,200 square kilometres, it is the largest country in the world by area, spanning more than one-eighth of the Earth's in
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Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It is the second-largest European country after Russia, which borders it to the east and northeast.
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The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, also called the North Atlantic Alliance, is an intergovernmental military alliance between 30 North American and European countries.
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Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008.
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Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy is a Ukrainian politician, actor and comedian who is the 6th and current president of Ukraine, serving since May 2019.
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The European Union is a political and economic union of 27 member states that are located primarily in Europe. Its members have a combined area of 4,233,255.3 km² and an estimated total population of about 447 million.
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Poland, officially the Republic of Poland, is a country located in Central Europe. It is divided into 16 administrative subdivisions, covering an area of 312,696 square kilometres, and has a largely temperate seasonal climate.