What's happened
National data through 2025 show reading declines in most districts since 2015, while math has improved in many districts; Modesto stands out for sustained local gains amid broader national declines in reading.
What's behind the headline?
Key takeaways
- Reading has not recovered nationally to pre-pandemic levels; declines extend back to 2013-2015 for earlier grades.
- Math shows more improvement since 2022, though gaps remain.
- Specific districts, including Modesto, have outpaced demographically similar peers, often tied to targeted reading interventions and phonics-based instruction.
What these findings imply
- The recovery will require sustained, district-level strategies rather than one-off programs.
- States that have mandated structured literacy approaches have seen pockets of success, but reforms are uneven and not universally predictive.
Implications for readers
- Parents and educators should watch for continued emphasis on structured literacy and early screening to close gaps.
- Absenteeism declines and reallocation of resources toward reading support may be decisive in the coming years.
How we got here
New district-level data from Stanford’s Educational Opportunity Project, expanded to 2025, show a long-run slump in reading across most districts, with some districts improving in math. Several states have adopted phonics-based teaching and early screening for learning disabilities as part of reforms.
Our analysis
New York Times (Claire Cain Miller) reports a national district-level view through 2025, noting declines in reading in 83% of districts and ongoing math improvements; Associated Press via NY Post highlights Modesto’s local gains amid broader national trends; The Independent summarizes the Education Scorecard and the phonics-based reforms linked to improvements, with context from Harvard and Stanford researchers. Quotes: - Claire Cain Miller (New York Times): "Compared with a decade earlier, reading scores were down last year in 83 percent of school districts where data was available. Math scores were down in 70 percent." - Harvard professor Thomas Kane: "The pandemic was the mudslide that had followed seven years of steady erosion in achievement." - The Independent notes reforms tied to the "science of reading" approach and early screening as drivers in leading states.
Go deeper
- What do you think will be the next steps for reading instruction in your district?
- Which programs or supports have you seen showing the most promise in your community?
More on these topics
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Stanford University - Private university in Stanford, California
Stanford University, officially Leland Stanford Junior University, is a private research university in Stanford, California. Stanford is ranked among the top five universities in the world in major education publications.
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Alabama - US State
Alabama is a state in the southeastern region of the United States. It is bordered by Tennessee to the north, Georgia to the east, Florida and the Gulf of Mexico to the south, and Mississippi to the west.
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Louisiana - US State
Louisiana is a state in the Deep South region of the South Central United States. It is the 19th-smallest by area and the 25th most populous of the 50 U.S. states.
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Modesto - City in California
Modesto, officially the City of Modesto, is the county seat and largest city of Stanislaus County, California, United States. With a population of approximately 201,165 at the 2010 census, it is the 18th largest city in the state of California and forms p