What's happened
In Wisconsin, Francesca Hong has lost the governor's primary to David Crowley by less than 1 point, a dramatic turn after polls showed she led by double digits. The result mirrors a broader pattern of polling misses and rising momentum for progressive candidates in state races. Prediction markets also underestimated Crowley’s chances.
What's behind the headline?
Analysis
- The race highlights a tension between progressive policy ambitions and electability in swing states.
- Polling misses in Wisconsin echo broader national concerns about prediction markets and surveys failing to capture late shifts.
- The result could shift the Democratic nominating landscape nationally, pressuring other progressives to recalibrate strategy toward broad appeal while maintaining policy aims.
- Readers should watch how the new governor navigates a divided legislature and evolving political dynamics in the Midwest.
How we got here
Hong, a Democratic socialist, ran on universal childcare, publicly owned groceries, a public bank and higher taxes on the wealthy. Crowley, backed by the state’s governor, emphasized electability in a purple state. Wisconsin’s open primary system complicates polling accuracy, as party registration is not required.
Our analysis
CNBC reports that Francesca Hong lost to David Crowley by under 1 point after polls projected a double-digit lead, while prediction markets showed a starkly different expectation. The Guardian provides context on Crowley’s reentry and Evers’ support. The CNBC piece also notes national implications for progressive strategies in upcoming primaries.
Go deeper
- Will this Wisconsin result alter national Democratic strategy in upcoming primaries?
- How might Crowley’s governorship affect economic policy in Wisconsin?
- What does this mean for other progressive candidates in swing states?
More on these topics
-
Abdul El-Sayed - American public health professor and politician
Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed (born October 31, 1984) is an American epidemiologist, politician, and former public health official and academic. He was the director of the Department of Health, Human, and Veterans Services of Wayne County, Michigan, from 2023 to 2025. A progressive Democrat, he was a candidate for governor of Michigan in the 2018 election. El-Sayed is running for the Democratic nomination in the 2026 United States Senate election in Michigan. El-Sayed is a graduate of the University of Michigan and University of Oxford's Oriel College, attending them on a full-tuition scholarship and a Rhodes Scholarship, respectively. He earned his MD at Columbia University. In his athletic career, he earned a full blue as captain of Oxford's men's lacrosse team. El-Sayed was an assistant professor of epidemiology at Columbia University from 2014 to 2015. He was the executive director of the Detroit Health Department and Health Officer for the City of Detroit from 2015 to 2017.
-
Francesca Hong - Member of Wisconsin State Assembly
Francesca Hong is an American politician, former chef, and business owner who has represented Wisconsin's 76th Assembly district in the Wisconsin State Assembly since 2021. She is a member of the Democratic Party and the Democratic Socialists of America.
-
Tony Evers - Governor of Wisconsin
Anthony Steven Evers is an American politician, educator and the Governor-elect of Wisconsin. He is currently serving as the 26th Superintendent of Public Instruction of Wisconsin since 2009.
-
Tom Tiffany - United States Representative
Thomas P. Tiffany is a businessman and politician serving as the U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 7th congressional district since 2020. A member of the Republican Party, he was previously elected to the Wisconsin State Assembly and Wisconsin Senate.
-
Donald Trump - 45th and 47th U.S. President
Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021.
-
Wisconsin - US State
Wisconsin is a U.S. state located in the north-central, Midwest and Great Lakes regions of the country. It is bordered by Minnesota to the west, Iowa to the southwest, Illinois to the south, Lake Michigan to the east, Michigan to the northeast, and Lake S
-
Milwaukee - City in Wisconsin
Milwaukee is the largest city in the state of Wisconsin and the fifth-largest city in the Midwestern United States. The seat of Milwaukee County, it is on Lake Michigan's western shore.
-
Israel - Country in the Middle East
Israel, formally known as the State of Israel, is a country in Western Asia, located on the southeastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea and the northern shore of the Red Sea.
-
Angie Craig - United States Representative
Angela Dawn Craig is an American politician and journalist serving as the U.S. Representative from Minnesota's 2nd congressional district since 2019. A member of the Democratic Party, she defeated incumbent Republican Jason Lewis in the 2018 election.
-
Minnesota - US State
Minnesota is a state in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and northern regions of the United States. Minnesota was admitted as the 32nd U.S. state on May 11, 1858, created from the eastern half of the Minnesota Territory.
-
Peggy Flanagan - Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota
Peggy Flanagan is an American politician serving as the 50th lieutenant governor of Minnesota. She was elected lieutenant governor on November 6, 2018, and is the second Native American woman to be elected to statewide executive office in U.S. history aft