What's happened
A new AP-NORC survey finds 39% of US adults approve of Trump’s immigration performance, a drop from 49% earlier in his term. About 8 in 10 Republicans still back his approach, with divisions on immigration, the economy and Iran. The share approving on immigration has remained largely stable within his base, while overall popularity has declined.
What's behind the headline?
Context and implications
- The poll shows a sustained partisan divide on immigration, with Republicans largely backing Trump while a broad share of independents and Democrats express skepticism.
- The data indicate that enforcement actions over the past year have had a muted effect on Trump’s overall popularity, even as support within his base remains relatively stable.
- Poll results also highlight concerns about deportations, legal immigration limits, and the use of traffic stops, with opinions diverging sharply along party lines.
What this means going forward
- The political calculus for Trump’s immigration strategy may hinge on whether base support translates into broader electoral gains as issues shift to the economy and foreign policy.
- Policymakers and opponents are likely to cite the polling as evidence of the need to recalibrate enforcement approaches to avoid widening partisan gaps.
Questions readers may have
- How has public opinion on immigration evolved since the start of his term?
- Do these polls predict electoral outcomes for immigration policy?
- What constraints do lawmakers face in changing immigration enforcement while maintaining public support?
How we got here
The AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research released a national survey on immigration policy and Trump’s handling of immigration and related issues. The polling tracks shifts in public opinion over time, noting a persistent partisan split and contrasting views on immigration with opinions on the economy and Iran.
Our analysis
AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research with coverage by AP News and The New Arab, each noting the same underlying figures but with different emphases on partisan reactions and the implications for immigration policy.
Go deeper
- What does the AP-NORC poll mean for Trump’s political future?
- How might debates over immigration influence other policy areas like the economy?
- Are there regional variations in opinions on immigration enforcement?
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