What's happened
Russia's oil exports in October have fallen to their lowest levels since early 2022, with daily exports dropping to 1.88 million barrels. Strikes, refinery damage, and seasonal maintenance have contributed to the decline, while the government has banned gasoline exports to address domestic shortages. The IEA forecasts a slow recovery into mid-2026.
What's behind the headline?
The recent decline in Russian oil exports underscores the fragility of its energy sector amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Strikes and Ukrainian attacks have damaged over 20 refineries, reducing refining capacity and export volumes. The IEA predicts a recovery will not occur before June 2026, indicating prolonged disruptions. The ban on gasoline exports aims to ease domestic shortages but may further depress export revenues. The potential halt of naphtha imports by Taiwan, a key buyer, could exacerbate market volatility, especially if EU sanctions tighten. This situation highlights Russia's vulnerability to external shocks and internal disruptions, which will likely keep export levels depressed into mid-2026, impacting global energy markets and prices.
What the papers say
Bloomberg reports that Russian oil exports have fallen to their lowest since early 2022, with daily exports dropping to 1.88 million barrels in October, due to strikes and refinery damage. The International Energy Agency warns that refining output will not return to normal before June 2026, with ongoing Ukrainian attacks and seasonal maintenance contributing to the decline. The Moscow Times highlights that exports of naphtha, a key petrochemical feedstock, have plunged 43% month-on-month, and Taiwan's potential halt of Russian naphtha imports could further impact the market. Bloomberg also notes that total seaborne fuel shipments in early October were at their lowest since 2022, with a muted diesel rebound amid record-low shipments of naphtha.
How we got here
Since strikes and Ukrainian attacks damaged key refineries in Russia, oil output has declined significantly. Seasonal maintenance and export bans, especially on gasoline, have further reduced exports. Taiwan, a major buyer, may halt Russian naphtha imports if EU sanctions are enforced, adding uncertainty to the market.
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Common question
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Are Russia's Oil Exports Recovering After Strikes?
Russia's oil exports have recently fallen to their lowest levels since early 2022, impacted by strikes, refinery damage, and seasonal maintenance. Despite some signs of recovery, several factors continue to influence the export volume. Curious about how these disruptions affect global markets and what the future holds? Below are answers to common questions about Russia's oil export trends and their implications.
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Russia, or the Russian Federation, is a transcontinental country located in Eastern Europe and Northern Asia. Covering an area of 17,125,200 square kilometres, it is the largest country in the world by area, spanning more than one-eighth of the Earth's in