What's happened
Ukrainian forces have launched a significant military operation into Russia's Kursk region, marking the first occupation of Russian territory since World War II. This unexpected advance has raised questions about Russia's military capabilities and the potential for a shift in the war's dynamics.
What's behind the headline?
Strategic Implications
- Psychological Warfare: The incursion serves to undermine the perception of Russian invincibility, potentially altering morale both domestically and internationally.
- Operational Dilemma for Russia: Ukrainian forces aim to stretch Russian military resources by forcing a redeployment of troops from eastern Ukraine to defend their homeland.
Potential Outcomes
- Territorial Gains: If Ukraine can hold the territory, it may leverage this in future negotiations with Russia.
- Risk of Counteroffensive: Should Russia successfully push back, it could embolden their military efforts and lead to further losses for Ukraine.
Future Considerations
- Western Support: The operation's success may influence Western military aid and support for Ukraine, as it demonstrates effective use of supplied equipment.
- Negotiation Leverage: Control over Russian territory could provide Ukraine with a stronger bargaining position in any future peace talks.
What the papers say
According to Kim Barker in the New York Times, the operation has surprised even Ukraine's closest allies, indicating a significant shift in the war's dynamics. Barker notes that Ukrainian forces have pushed past Russian defenses with little resistance, raising questions about Russia's military readiness. Meanwhile, Orysia Lutsevych from The Guardian emphasizes that this incursion challenges the Kremlin's narrative of inevitable victory, suggesting that the Ukrainian army's actions could reshape perceptions of the conflict. Gergana Krasteva from Metro highlights the symbolic nature of the operation, framing it as a humiliation for Putin and a potential advantage for Ukrainian President Zelensky in negotiations. The contrasting perspectives illustrate the complexity of the situation, with some viewing it as a bold move that could redefine the war, while others caution about the risks involved.
How we got here
Since the onset of the war in 2022, Ukraine has consistently surprised observers with its military resilience. The recent incursion into Russian territory follows a series of successful operations, including the liberation of Kherson in 2023, and reflects a strategic shift in Ukraine's approach to the conflict.
Go deeper
- What are the implications of this incursion?
- How is Russia responding to the situation?
- What does this mean for future negotiations?
More on these topics
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Russia, or the Russian Federation, is a transcontinental country located in Eastern Europe and Northern Asia. Covering an area of 17,125,200 square kilometres, it is the largest country in the world by area, spanning more than one-eighth of the Earth's in
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Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It is the second-largest European country after Russia, which borders it to the east and northeast.
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Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008.