What's happened
Russia's military presence in Syria remains focused on two Mediterranean bases, despite recent withdrawals from Kurdish-held northeast Syria. Moscow seeks to secure its influence as Syrian rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa visits Moscow to discuss the future of Russian bases and bilateral relations, amid shifting regional alliances and US involvement.
What's behind the headline?
Strategic Stability and Influence
Russia's decision to retain only its Mediterranean bases signals a focus on consolidating its regional influence rather than expanding military reach. The visit of Syrian rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa to Moscow indicates Moscow's attempt to navigate the new political landscape in Syria, balancing relations with the current regime and opposition figures.
Regional Power Dynamics
The meeting underscores Russia's intent to secure its military foothold amid a shifting Middle East landscape, where US influence is resurging through actions like the deployment of special forces to Venezuela and support for opposition figures like Sharaa. Moscow's reluctance to extradite Assad or his wife highlights ongoing tensions over its support for the ousted leader.
Implications for Syria
The continued Russian presence at Hmeimim and Tartus suggests a long-term strategic interest in Syria, despite the regime's fall. The US and European concerns over recent Kurdish offensives indicate a fragile regional stability, with Moscow positioning itself as a key power broker capable of influencing future developments.
Future Outlook
Russia will likely deepen diplomatic efforts with Syrian factions and regional powers to preserve its influence. The upcoming talks are expected to focus on the future of Russian military bases and Syria's political trajectory, with Moscow aiming to prevent further US or Western influence from gaining ground.
What the papers say
Al Jazeera reports that Moscow is focused on maintaining its military bases in Syria, with recent withdrawals from Kurdish-controlled areas. The article highlights Russia's strategic interests and the upcoming talks with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa. The Times of Israel emphasizes the diplomatic tone of Putin and Sharaa's previous meeting, noting Russia's ongoing support for Assad and the regional power struggle involving the US. The New Arab provides context on the significance of the bases and the broader geopolitical implications, including US support for opposition figures and the shifting influence in Syria. All sources agree that Russia's primary goal remains securing its military presence and influence in Syria amid regional instability.
How we got here
Russia has been a key supporter of Bashar al-Assad during the Syrian civil war, establishing military bases in Syria. After Assad's ouster in 2024, Russia shifted its focus to maintaining its strategic presence through bases at Hmeimim and Tartus. The recent withdrawal from Qamishli airport reflects a recalibration of Russia's regional military footprint, amid broader geopolitical shifts including US actions in the region and the fall of Assad's regime.
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Common question
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Why Are US and Iran Threatening Military Action Now?
Recent tensions between the US and Iran have escalated, with the US deploying a large naval fleet and warning of potential military strikes. This surge in hostility raises questions about the current state of diplomacy, regional stability, and what might happen next. Below, we explore the key reasons behind these threats and what they mean for global security.
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