What's happened
A severe cocoa shortage driven by weather, disease, and illegal mining has sharply reduced harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana, leading to record-high prices for cocoa and related products. This crisis is impacting chocolate production and prices globally, with effects seen in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, through 2026.
What's behind the headline?
The cocoa crisis reflects a broader trend of climate and environmental stress on agricultural commodities. The sharp rise in prices—more than double compared to two years ago—will likely lead to sustained inflation in chocolate products through 2026. Major manufacturers are adapting by shrinking product sizes, adding cheaper ingredients, and shifting focus to non-chocolate snacks. Consumers in affected regions, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are already experiencing higher prices and smaller quantities. This crisis underscores the vulnerability of global supply chains to environmental and illegal activities, which will likely persist unless significant agricultural or policy interventions occur. The situation also highlights the importance of diversifying supply sources and investing in sustainable farming practices to mitigate future shocks.
What the papers say
Bloomberg reports a 5% decline in cocoa bean grindings in Europe, indicating reduced processing activity. The same source notes that cocoa prices have hit all-time highs, with futures contracts exceeding $9,400 per ton. Gulf News details how the cocoa shortage is causing smaller chocolate products and higher prices in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, with major brands shrinking sizes and raising prices. Bloomberg also reports a 16% surge in US cocoa powder prices over the past year, reflecting tight raw material supplies. The combined reporting from these sources illustrates a global supply chain under stress, with prices and product sizes adjusting to the scarcity. The articles collectively emphasize the unprecedented nature of this crisis and its potential to reshape consumer habits and industry strategies.
How we got here
Cocoa harvests have been declining due to extreme weather, disease, and illegal mining in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which supply nearly 70% of the world's cocoa. These factors have caused a 10% fall in output for the 2025/26 season, pushing prices to record levels and affecting global supply chains.
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