What's happened
Recent Russian aircraft have repeatedly overflown NATO ships in the Baltic Sea, with incidents occurring weekly since 2014. A Russian Il-20 flew close to a German frigate, prompting NATO to emphasize routine, professional interactions. Meanwhile, Ukraine claims significant success in attacking Russian aircraft and military assets in Crimea, including historic destruction of the Be-12 'Chaika' amphibious aircraft, as part of ongoing efforts to weaken Russian military presence.
What's behind the headline?
The recent Russian overflights and Ukrainian drone strikes highlight a sustained pattern of hybrid warfare aimed at testing NATO’s limits and degrading Russian military assets. The Il-20 flyby, while routine, underscores the inherent risks of close encounters in contested waters, which NATO emphasizes are conducted professionally. However, Russia's reported unsafe maneuvers and the Black Sea drone attacks suggest a deliberate escalation designed to provoke and destabilize. Ukraine’s destruction of historic aircraft like the Be-12 'Chaika' signals a strategic shift, targeting key Russian maritime assets to challenge Russia’s control over Crimea and the Black Sea. These developments will likely lead to increased military readiness and heightened tensions, with the potential for miscalculation. The pattern of incursions and targeted strikes indicates both sides are engaged in a calculated game of deterrence and provocation, with Ukraine making notable gains in degrading Russian assets, and Russia continuing its probing activities to test NATO’s response thresholds.
What the papers say
Business Insider UK reports that NATO officials, including Commodore Arjen Warnaar, describe these encounters as routine, safe, and professional, emphasizing NATO’s efforts to minimize miscalculations. Warnaar notes that such fly-bys have occurred weekly since 2014, involving aircraft like the Il-20, Su-24, and maritime patrol planes, in waters around Europe and the High North. Conversely, Ukrainian sources, including the HUR and Defense Express, detail significant recent strikes against Russian aircraft and infrastructure in Crimea, including the historic destruction of two Be-12 'Chaika' amphibious aircraft and multiple helicopters and radar systems. These attacks are part of Ukraine’s broader strategy to weaken Russian military presence in Crimea and the Black Sea, with the destruction of the Be-12 marking a first in history. The contrasting narratives reflect NATO’s focus on routine, defensive interactions, while Ukraine highlights its offensive successes in targeting Russian assets, signaling a deepening of the conflict at both sea and air.
How we got here
Tensions between NATO and Russia have escalated since Russia's 2014 invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea. Russia's frequent aerial and maritime incursions are seen as probing NATO’s response, while Ukraine has intensified drone attacks targeting Russian military assets in Crimea to weaken its occupation and military capabilities. These actions reflect ongoing regional power struggles and the broader conflict over Ukraine.
Go deeper
More on these topics
-
Crimea is a peninsula located on the northern coast of the Black Sea in Eastern Europe that is almost completely surrounded by both the Black Sea and the smaller Sea of Azov to the northeast. The status of Crimea is disputed.
-
Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It is the second-largest European country after Russia, which borders it to the east and northeast.