What's happened
Israel signals readiness to reduce military presence in southern Lebanon if Lebanon’s armed forces disarm Hezbollah, following Lebanon’s cabinet decision to pursue Hezbollah disarmament by year-end. US and Israeli officials emphasize steps toward sovereignty and stability amid ongoing tensions and military activity.
What's behind the headline?
The current discourse reveals a complex interplay of military, political, and diplomatic efforts. The Lebanese government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah by the end of 2025 signals a significant shift, driven by US and Israeli pressure. However, Hezbollah’s leadership, notably Naim Qassem, dismisses disarmament unless Israel first withdraws and halts attacks, emphasizing their resistance as a national and ideological necessity. Israel’s signals of troop reduction are contingent on Lebanese compliance, but ongoing Israeli airstrikes and occupation of strategic positions undermine the ceasefire’s intent. The US’s involvement, including proposals for phased troop withdrawals and economic zones, aims to balance disarmament with regional stability. The situation remains volatile, with military actions, political resistance, and international diplomacy all influencing the trajectory. The next months will determine whether Lebanon’s disarmament efforts succeed or if hostilities escalate, potentially destabilizing the region further.
What the papers say
The Times of Israel, South China Morning Post, Al Jazeera, The New Arab, The Independent. The Times of Israel emphasizes Israel’s readiness to reduce forces if Lebanon disarms Hezbollah, framing it as a reciprocal step. South China Morning Post highlights Hezbollah’s leadership warnings and Israel’s military signals, stressing ongoing tensions. Al Jazeera provides Hezbollah’s perspective, insisting disarmament must follow Israeli withdrawal and ceasefire compliance. The New Arab discusses US plans for economic zones and phased troop withdrawals, emphasizing regional reconstruction efforts. The Independent notes Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm without Israeli withdrawal and ongoing Israeli strikes, portraying a persistent cycle of conflict and diplomatic negotiations.
How we got here
Since the 1975-1990 civil war, Hezbollah has maintained its weapons, citing resistance against Israeli occupation. A 2024 ceasefire ended a year of hostilities, with Israel continuing strikes against Hezbollah targets. Lebanon’s government has recently committed to disarm Hezbollah, aligning with US-backed initiatives, but Hezbollah refuses to disarm without Israeli withdrawal and cessation of airstrikes. The US and Israel have maintained military positions in Lebanon, despite a ceasefire agreement that called for withdrawal and disarmament, leading to ongoing tensions and military operations.
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