What's happened
Israeli escalation in Lebanon continues despite a year-old ceasefire, with threats to disarm Hezbollah and recent strikes raising fears of renewed conflict. Lebanon's government faces pressure to disarm Hezbollah, while diplomatic efforts aim to prevent full-scale war.
What's behind the headline?
Rising Tensions and Diplomatic Risks
The recent escalation reflects Israel's frustration with Lebanon's slow disarmament efforts and Hezbollah's resilience. Israel's threats to intensify attacks and the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander signal a potential shift toward renewed conflict, which could destabilize the region.
Strategic Calculations
While Israel aims to weaken Hezbollah militarily, analysts believe disarming the group by force remains unlikely without Lebanese government action. The US and Lebanon are pushing for political disarmament, but Hezbollah's rejection and internal Lebanese divisions complicate this.
Future Outlook
The risk of full-scale war persists if diplomatic efforts fail. Israel's military buildup and recent strikes suggest a readiness to escalate, but Hezbollah's restraint indicates a cautious approach. The international community's involvement, including Egypt's efforts to de-escalate, will be crucial in preventing a broader conflict.
Impact on Regional Stability
A renewed conflict would threaten regional stability, potentially drawing in other actors and disrupting ongoing diplomatic negotiations. The current situation underscores the fragile balance in Lebanon and the importance of sustained diplomatic engagement to avoid further violence.
What the papers say
The New York Times reports that Israel has escalated its threats and military actions, including the killing of Hezbollah's chief of staff, Haytham Ali Tabatabai, and warns of no calm in Lebanon until its security is guaranteed. The article highlights Israel's refusal to disarm Hezbollah by force and the Lebanese government's slow progress in disarmament efforts.
The New Arab emphasizes the increasing likelihood of conflict, citing Israel's ongoing strikes and the assassination of Hezbollah's leader as signs of escalation. It notes that Israel's military buildup and the potential for broader strikes threaten to reignite full-scale war, with Hezbollah's response remaining cautious but prepared.
Both sources agree that diplomatic efforts are underway, with the US and Lebanon seeking to prevent escalation. However, they differ slightly in tone: The NYT focuses on recent diplomatic developments and the potential for negotiations, while The New Arab underscores the risks of renewed conflict and Israel's military posture. The Egyptian foreign minister's efforts to de-escalate are also noted as a positive sign for regional stability.
How we got here
Since the 14-month war between Israel and Hezbollah ended last year, Israel has maintained a policy of strikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, citing rearmament concerns. Lebanon's government has committed to disarm militias, but progress has been slow amid internal disagreements and external pressure from the US and Israel. The ceasefire has largely held, but recent incidents, including the killing of Hezbollah's chief of staff, have heightened tensions and increased the risk of escalation.
Go deeper
Common question
-
What’s Happening in Ukraine, Lebanon, and Middle East Conflicts?
Recent developments in Ukraine, Lebanon, and the Middle East are capturing global attention. From Russia’s large-scale attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure to rising tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, these conflicts are shaping regional stability and international responses. Curious about the latest updates and what they mean for the world? Below, we answer key questions about these ongoing crises.
-
How Are Global Political and Economic Shifts Affecting Daily Life in 2025?
In 2025, the world is experiencing significant political and economic changes that impact everything from car markets to regional stability. People are asking how these shifts influence their daily lives, future plans, and the global economy. Here, we explore the latest developments, including government policies on electric vehicles, rising tensions in the Middle East, and how international conflicts shape markets worldwide. Read on to find answers to your most pressing questions about today’s news and what it means for you.
-
Why Are Israeli Threats Increasing in Lebanon?
Recent escalations in Lebanon have raised concerns about a potential new conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. With threats to disarm Hezbollah and recent military strikes, many are wondering what’s driving these tensions and whether war is imminent. Below, we explore the key questions about the current situation, diplomatic efforts, and what might happen next.
More on these topics
-
Joseph Khalil Aoun is a Lebanese Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces since 2017.
-
Hezbollah is a Shia Islamist political party and militant group based in Lebanon. Hezbollah's paramilitary wing is the Jihad Council, and its political wing is the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc party in the Lebanese parliament.
-
Israel, formally known as the State of Israel, is a country in Western Asia, located on the southeastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea and the northern shore of the Red Sea.
-
Lebanon, officially known as the Lebanese Republic, is a country in Western Asia. It is bordered by Syria to the north and east and Israel to the south, while Cyprus lies west across the Mediterranean Sea.