What's happened
As of mid-October 2025, US soybean farmers are struggling due to China halting purchases amid ongoing trade tensions and tariffs. China, the largest buyer, has not bought US soybeans this season, diverting demand to Brazil and Argentina. President Trump plans to discuss soybean trade with Xi Jinping at the upcoming APEC summit, while US farmers seek new markets and await potential government aid.
What's behind the headline?
Trade War Impact on US Soybean Farmers
The ongoing US-China trade war has severely disrupted the soybean market, with China, the world's largest buyer, halting purchases of US soybeans since May 2025. This has left American farmers with overflowing storage and plummeting prices, as soybeans are a critical export crop accounting for about 14% of US farm goods exports.
Economic and Political Dimensions
The tariffs imposed by both sides have made US soybeans prohibitively expensive for Chinese buyers, who have shifted to South American suppliers, primarily Brazil and Argentina. This shift threatens the long-term viability of US soybean farmers, many of whom operate on thin margins and face rising input costs due to tariffs on equipment and fertilizers.
President Trump's administration is under pressure to resolve the dispute, with plans to discuss soybean trade directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit. Meanwhile, the US government is preparing aid packages funded by tariff revenues to support farmers, though many farmers prefer market solutions over bailouts.
Market Diversification and Future Outlook
US farmers are actively seeking new markets in countries like India, Vietnam, and Nigeria, but these cannot fully replace the scale and stability of Chinese demand. The political sensitivity of trade negotiations, including India's tariffs and domestic agricultural policies, complicates diversification efforts.
If no trade deal is reached soon, China risks cementing its reliance on South American soybeans, potentially bypassing US suppliers entirely. This would have lasting consequences for US agriculture and rural economies, especially in Midwestern states.
Broader Implications
The soybean trade dispute exemplifies how geopolitical tensions directly impact global commodity markets and local livelihoods. It highlights the interconnectedness of trade policy, domestic politics, and economic sustainability in agriculture. The resolution or prolongation of this dispute will shape US-China relations and the future of global agricultural trade.
What the papers say
The South China Morning Post captures the urgency felt by farmers, quoting a Nebraska farmer who said, “This year is almost gone for soy farmers because they have a big harvest but no orders from China,” emphasizing the reliance on stable Chinese demand. The Post also highlights efforts to find alternative markets, noting visits by US agricultural delegations to India and Nigeria.
Al Jazeera provides a detailed account of the financial strain on farmers, with quotes from farmer Hutchison who notes, “Soya bean prices are really depressed because of the trade war,” and the American Soybean Association warning of a “very, very tough year.” It also reports on the rising costs of equipment and inputs due to tariffs.
The Guardian offers a personal perspective from Matt Purfeerst, a fifth-generation farmer, who describes the challenges of balancing rising costs with falling prices and the political complexities farmers face. It also notes the political divide and the impact of government shutdowns on aid announcements.
The Independent and AP News focus on the looming aid package and the political negotiations, with Trump pledging to use tariff revenues to support farmers and planning to discuss soybeans with Xi Jinping at the APEC summit. They underline the risk that China’s shift to Brazil and Argentina could become permanent if no deal is reached soon.
Bloomberg highlights the market dynamics, noting that China has not booked any US soybean shipments this season and is relying on South American suppliers, which exacerbates the crisis for US farmers.
Together, these sources paint a comprehensive picture of a trade dispute that is not only a geopolitical standoff but a direct economic crisis for American farmers, with significant political and market ramifications.
How we got here
The US-China trade war, reignited under President Trump, led China to impose tariffs on US soybeans, making them less competitive. China historically bought over half of US soybean exports, but retaliatory tariffs and trade tensions have halted purchases since May 2025. US farmers face financial strain amid rising costs and falling prices, while the government considers aid funded by tariff revenues.
Go deeper
- How are US soybean farmers coping with the loss of the Chinese market?
- What steps is the US government taking to support affected farmers?
- How is China’s shift to South American soybeans impacting global markets?
Common question
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