What's happened
The US non-farm payroll growth is projected to decelerate to 138,000 in April, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.2%. This report comes amid heightened uncertainty due to recent tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
What's behind the headline?
Key Insights:
- Deceleration in Job Growth: Economists predict a slowdown in payroll growth, with estimates ranging from 65,000 to 165,000 new jobs added in April.
- Impact of Tariffs: The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to weigh on business hiring decisions, particularly in sectors like leisure and hospitality.
- Immigration Effects: A decline in immigration since last summer is contributing to a tighter labor market, potentially stabilizing the unemployment rate despite slowing job demand.
- Federal Reserve's Stance: The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates, as the anticipated job report is expected to show solid numbers, reducing urgency for rate cuts.
What the papers say
According to Bloomberg, the non-farm payroll growth is expected to slow to 138,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. In contrast, the South China Morning Post highlights that the job market's performance is under scrutiny due to the recent tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which have created uncertainty for businesses. ADP Research reported a disappointing increase of only 62,000 private-sector jobs, indicating broader challenges in the labor market. Lydia Boussour from EY anticipates a decline in hiring in sectors like leisure and hospitality, emphasizing the potential negative impact of seasonal adjustments amid tariff uncertainties.
How we got here
The upcoming employment report reflects the first labor market data since the Trump administration's tariffs were enacted. Economists are concerned about the impact of trade restrictions and immigration policies on job growth.
Go deeper
- What sectors are most affected by the slowdown?
- How might the Federal Reserve respond to this report?
- What are the long-term implications of the tariffs on employment?
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The United States of America, commonly known as the United States or America, is a country mostly located in central North America, between Canada and Mexico.