What's happened
Recent studies confirm that global warming has accelerated significantly since 2015, with the Earth heating at about 0.35°C per decade—nearly double the previous rate. February 2026 saw extreme rainfall and flooding in Western Europe, while Arctic sea ice reached its third-lowest extent on record. Compound heat and drought extremes are rising rapidly, increasing risks of flash droughts and ecosystem tipping points.
What's behind the headline?
Accelerating Climate Change
The recent acceleration in global warming is unequivocal and driven primarily by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. The rate has nearly doubled since 2015, pushing the planet closer to critical thresholds outlined in the Paris Agreement. This acceleration is not a short-term anomaly but a sustained trend, as demonstrated by noise-filtered temperature datasets.
Compound Extremes Amplify Risks
The rise in compound heat-then-drought events, especially flash droughts, signals a dangerous shift in climate dynamics. These events are more damaging than isolated heatwaves or droughts, as they rapidly degrade ecosystems and strain agricultural systems without warning. Regions like western North America, South America, and parts of Africa are experiencing these extremes with increasing frequency.
Regional Disparities and Jet Stream Shifts
Western and Southern Europe faced extreme rainfall and flooding in early 2026, linked to a southward-shifted polar jet stream and atmospheric rivers. Meanwhile, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe experienced colder-than-average conditions, illustrating the complex regional impacts of climate change.
Tipping Points and Overshoot Risks
Earth systems such as coral reefs and the Amazon rainforest are nearing or have crossed thermal tipping points. Even brief overshoots above 1.5°C warming risk triggering irreversible changes that accelerate climate breakdown. The urgency to limit both the peak temperature and duration of overshoot is paramount.
Implications for Policy and Society
These findings underscore the insufficiency of current emission reduction efforts. Without rapid decarbonization, the world will surpass critical warming thresholds before 2030, leading to more frequent extreme weather, ecosystem collapse, and socio-economic disruption. Adaptation strategies must also account for the increasing prevalence of compound extremes.
What This Means for You
The accelerating pace of climate change will affect food security, infrastructure, and health globally. Individuals and communities should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events and support policies aimed at rapid emission reductions and climate resilience.
What the papers say
Sky News' Russell Hope highlights February 2026's "extreme rainfall and widespread flooding in Western Europe," attributing it partly to climate change and noting the third-lowest Arctic sea ice extent on record. The Japan Times and The Guardian both report on a new study showing global warming accelerated from under 0.2°C per decade (1970-2015) to about 0.35°C per decade since 2015, with The Guardian emphasizing the risk of surpassing the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit before 2030. The Independent focuses on the rapid increase in compound heat-then-drought extremes, warning these "flash droughts" are more damaging and have surged eightfold in rate since 2000, with examples like the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat dome illustrating the dangers. The Ecologist reviews tipping points, warning that even brief overshoots above 1.5°C could trigger irreversible changes in ecosystems such as coral reefs and the Amazon rainforest. Meanwhile, The Moscow Times reports Russia's 2025 temperatures were the second-highest on record, with significant warming and increased precipitation, underscoring regional climate impacts. Together, these sources paint a comprehensive picture of accelerating global warming, increasing extreme weather, and looming ecological tipping points, emphasizing the urgent need for global climate action.
How we got here
Global temperatures have risen steadily since the 1970s due to greenhouse gas emissions. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, but recent data show this threshold was briefly exceeded in 2024. Climate change is driving more frequent and intense extreme weather events worldwide.
Go deeper
- What causes the acceleration in global warming since 2015?
- How do compound heat and drought events affect ecosystems and agriculture?
- What are the risks of crossing climate tipping points?
Common question
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How Fast Is Earth Warming and What Are the Risks?
Recent studies reveal that Earth's temperature is rising at an unprecedented rate, with the planet nearing critical climate thresholds. Many wonder how much warming has occurred recently, what the potential consequences are, and whether current efforts are enough to prevent irreversible damage. Below, we explore the latest scientific findings and answer common questions about the speed of global warming and its implications.
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Why Is Earth Heating Up Faster Than Before?
Recent studies reveal that Earth's temperature is rising at an unprecedented rate, surpassing previous records and breaching critical climate thresholds. This acceleration raises urgent questions about what's causing this rapid warming and whether current efforts are enough to slow it down. Below, we explore the latest findings and answer common questions about the climate crisis and Earth's accelerating warming.
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What’s Happening in the World Today? US-Iran Tensions & Climate Crisis Explained
Recent headlines reveal a complex picture of global conflict and environmental change. From a foiled Iran-backed assassination plot targeting US officials to alarming signs of accelerating climate change, these stories raise important questions about international security and our planet’s future. Here, we explore what’s happening now, how these issues are connected, and what you need to know about current global conflicts and climate efforts.
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How Is Global Warming Changing Our World? Key Facts You Need to Know
Global warming is accelerating faster than ever, impacting our daily lives and the planet's future. Recent studies show Earth's temperature rise has nearly doubled since 2015, with 2024 surpassing the critical 1.5°C threshold for the first time. Understanding these facts helps us grasp the urgency of climate action and what we can do to help. Below, find answers to common questions about the latest climate trends and how they affect us all.
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Why Is Global Warming Accelerating Since 2015?
Recent studies show that global warming has sped up significantly since 2015, with the Earth heating at nearly double the previous rate. This acceleration is linked to more extreme weather events, melting ice, and rising sea levels. Curious about what’s driving this rapid change and what it means for our future? Below, we answer common questions about the current climate crisis and its implications.
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How Do Global Warming and Energy Conflicts Intersect Today?
Recent developments show that climate change and geopolitical tensions are more connected than ever. From accelerating global warming to energy crises sparked by conflicts in the Middle East, understanding these links is crucial. Below, we explore how current events impact our climate efforts and what they mean for the future of energy and environment.
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What’s Next for Earth’s Ecosystems Amid Climate Change?
As global warming accelerates, many wonder what the future holds for our planet’s ecosystems. From tipping points to extreme weather, understanding these risks is crucial. Below, we explore key questions about the future of Earth’s environment and what can be done to prevent irreversible damage.
More on these topics
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The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a German government-funded research institute addressing crucial scientific questions in the fields of global change, climate impacts, and sustainable development.
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Stefan Rahmstorf is a German oceanographer and climatologist. Since 2000, he has been a Professor of Physics of the Oceans at Potsdam University. He received his Ph.D. in oceanography from Victoria University of Wellington. His work focuses on the role of