What's happened
Since the US-backed abduction of Maduro, Venezuela's military is under pressure to align with US interests. Experts warn that the military must dissociate from accusations and accept US oil deals to maintain influence amid ongoing political turmoil and potential intervention.
What's behind the headline?
The Venezuelan military's recent crisis reveals a strategic dilemma. The abduction of Maduro by US forces has exposed weaknesses in the FANB's technology and protocols, undermining its image as a protector of the state. To avoid further US attacks and preserve its influence, the military is likely to make significant concessions, including dissociating from drug trafficking accusations and accepting US-controlled oil agreements. This shift aligns with historical patterns where military institutions in Latin America serve as stabilizers for US-backed regimes, often at the expense of national sovereignty. The military's support for interim President Rodriguez, seen as the US's preferred figure, underscores its potential role as a stabilizing force in a post-Maduro Venezuela. However, this will come at the cost of internal legitimacy and autonomy, risking further erosion of its authority if it fails to adapt. The broader geopolitical context suggests that Venezuela's military will continue to be a key player in the country's future, balancing US influence with internal stability, but the risks of further US intervention remain high, potentially destabilizing the region further.
What the papers say
The articles from Politico, The Japan Times, and Al Jazeera offer contrasting perspectives. Politico highlights the US's strategic interests and the potential for Venezuela's military to make concessions to maintain influence, emphasizing the importance of dissociation from accusations and oil deals. The Japan Times provides historical context, illustrating how US intervention has historically prioritized regime change over democracy, and notes the current administration's focus on non-democratic tactics like 'narco-terrorism.' Al Jazeera offers an in-depth look at the Venezuelan military's internal dynamics, exposing how the FANB has become a key political actor, intertwined with Maduro's regime, and now faces a crisis after Maduro's kidnapping. While Politico emphasizes US interests and regional stability, Al Jazeera underscores the military's internal vulnerabilities and the potential for internal reform or further erosion of legitimacy. The Japan Times contextualizes these developments within a long history of US intervention, suggesting that Venezuela's current crisis is part of a broader pattern of US influence in Latin America.
How we got here
Venezuela's military has historically been intertwined with the government, supporting Maduro and consolidating power after the 2018 election crisis. The US has increased pressure, including the recent abduction of Maduro, exposing vulnerabilities and prompting the military to consider aligning with US interests to preserve its influence amid ongoing political instability.
Go deeper
Common question
-
What’s the Latest on Venezuela, Iran, and US Military Strategies?
Recent developments in Venezuela and Iran, along with US military and economic tactics, are shaping regional stability. From Venezuela's military pressures to US sanctions on Iran, these stories raise questions about future conflicts and geopolitical shifts. Here are the key questions and answers to help you understand what's really happening.
-
How is US foreign policy affecting Venezuela?
US foreign policy has a significant impact on Venezuela's political and military landscape. From sanctions to military pressure, the US's actions influence the country's stability and future. Curious about how these policies play out and what they mean for Venezuela? Below are some key questions and answers to help you understand the ongoing situation.
More on these topics
-
Venezuela, officially the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, is a country on the northern coast of South America, consisting of a continental landmass and many small islands and islets in the Caribbean Sea.
-
Nicolás Maduro Moros is a Venezuelan politician serving as president of Venezuela since 2013. His presidency has been disputed by Juan Guaidó since January 2019, although Maduro is the real president.
-
Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.