What's happened
Following the US-backed abduction of Maduro, Venezuela's military is under pressure to adapt. Experts warn that the Venezuelan military must dissociate from accusations and accept US oil deals to maintain influence amid ongoing political turmoil and potential US intervention.
What's behind the headline?
The US-Venezuela military dynamic is at a critical juncture.
- The abduction of Maduro by US special forces has significantly damaged the FANB's image, revealing vulnerabilities in its defense capabilities.
- The military's future role hinges on its willingness to dissociate from US accusations, particularly drug trafficking, and to accept new oil agreements that favor US companies.
- The military's support for interim President Rodriguez is essential for US-backed political stability, but this requires the military to accept a diminished repressive role.
- Historically, the US relies on military establishments to stabilize regimes, as seen in Egypt and Pakistan, and Venezuela is no exception.
- Failure to cooperate risks further US attacks, which would undermine the military's credibility and deepen Venezuela's instability.
- The military's decision to align with US interests will determine whether Venezuela transitions peacefully or descends into chaos.
This situation will likely accelerate US influence in Venezuela, with the military acting as a key gatekeeper in the country's political future. The military's willingness to adapt will shape whether Venezuela remains under authoritarian control or moves toward a new political order.
What the papers say
The Japan Times highlights the US's shift from a pro-democracy justification during Cold War interventions to a focus on Venezuela's election fraud and 'narco-terrorism' charges, emphasizing the US's strategic interests. Al Jazeera provides an in-depth analysis of the FANB's role in consolidating power, its recent exposure during Maduro's kidnapping, and the military's potential need to reform to align with US interests. The article also discusses the broader geopolitical implications, including the US's reliance on military influence in Latin America and the possible outcomes of Venezuela's political transition. Meanwhile, Joseph Stepansky from Al Jazeera notes that US Senator Marco Rubio's hardline approach has culminated in Maduro's abduction, illustrating the US's aggressive stance and the internal pressures on the Venezuelan military to adapt or face further conflict.
How we got here
Venezuela's military, the FANB, has grown in influence by supporting Maduro and suppressing opposition, especially after the 2024 elections. The US has increased pressure, accusing the military of drug trafficking and seeking control over Venezuela's oil resources. Maduro's recent kidnapping by US forces has exposed weaknesses in the military's defense protocols and its reliance on political backing, prompting a potential shift in its role in the country's future.
Go deeper
More on these topics
-
Venezuela, officially the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, is a country on the northern coast of South America, consisting of a continental landmass and many small islands and islets in the Caribbean Sea.
-
Nicolás Maduro Moros is a Venezuelan politician serving as president of Venezuela since 2013. His presidency has been disputed by Juan Guaidó since January 2019, although Maduro is the real president.
-
Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.