What's happened
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western intelligence agencies have reported a surge in covert operations attributed to Russian intelligence, including sabotage and disinformation campaigns aimed at undermining support for Ukraine and creating political discord in Europe. Recent reports highlight the escalation of these activities and the challenges in countering them.
What's behind the headline?
Key Insights:
- Escalation of Attacks: Reports indicate that Russian attacks in Europe quadrupled from 2022 to 2023 and tripled again in 2024, targeting critical infrastructure and political figures.
- Political Objectives: The dual purpose of these operations is to create political disquiet within European nations and undermine their support for Ukraine, as noted by NATO officials.
- Challenges in Attribution: While many incidents have been linked to Russia, proving direct involvement remains complex, with the Kremlin consistently denying allegations.
- Impact on U.S. Policy: The recent suspension of coordinated efforts by U.S. national security agencies to counter Russian activities may embolden further Russian actions, especially as U.S. support for Ukraine appears to waver.
- Future Implications: As European nations reassess their support for Ukraine amid ongoing Russian threats, the potential for increased sabotage and disinformation campaigns looms, particularly if new military aid is provided to Ukraine.
What the papers say
The Independent reports that Western officials have documented 59 incidents of Russian-linked sabotage and disinformation since the invasion, highlighting the breadth of the campaign. The Japan Times notes that U.S. national security agencies have halted coordinated efforts to counter these threats, potentially easing pressure on Russia. Meanwhile, The Moscow Times emphasizes the Kremlin's dismissal of these allegations as unfounded, while the New York Times provides data showing a significant increase in Russian attacks targeting critical infrastructure in Europe. This divergence in perspectives illustrates the complexity of the situation and the varying responses from Western nations.
How we got here
Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Western nations have increasingly accused Russia of conducting a shadow war involving cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation to destabilize support for Ukraine and sow discord within European societies.
Go deeper
- What specific incidents have been reported?
- How are European nations responding to these threats?
- What impact might this have on U.S. foreign policy?
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