What's happened
Conservative support continues to decline as leadership doubts grow. A recent conference saw low attendance, protests stay away, and polls show the party could lose many seats. Kemi Badenoch's leadership is under scrutiny amid internal and public dissatisfaction, with Reform UK gaining ground.
What's behind the headline?
The current state of the Conservative Party reveals a profound crisis. The party's support is collapsing, driven by leadership doubts and a disconnect with voters. Badenoch's conference, once a platform for rallying support, was notably subdued, with sparse attendance and protests absent—signs of waning relevance. Polls forecast a disastrous electoral outcome, with the party potentially reduced to fewer than 50 MPs. The rise of Reform UK, under Nigel Farage, signifies a shift of traditional Tory voters to a more populist, anti-establishment alternative. The party's internal struggles, including questions over Badenoch's leadership and policy direction, suggest that unless significant changes occur, the Tories face a long-term decline. The political landscape is shifting, with voters increasingly favoring reformist and outsider figures, making the Tories' future uncertain. The next steps will depend on whether Badenoch can rally the party and reconnect with disillusioned voters or if internal fractures will deepen, accelerating their decline.
What the papers say
The Independent reports that the Tory conference was markedly quieter than previous years, with low attendance and protests notably absent, indicating waning party relevance. A YouGov poll for Sky News shows half of Conservative members oppose Badenoch leading the party into the next election, and seat-by-seat polling suggests a potential loss of most seats, leaving the party behind Reform UK, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats. The Mirror highlights the internal decline, with support collapsing and the party's support base eroding, compounded by a lack of charismatic leadership akin to Boris Johnson. Experts like Sir John Curtice warn of an 'existential crisis,' emphasizing that Badenoch's leadership has failed to stem the support decline or effectively counter Reform UK's rise. The polling data and expert commentary collectively underscore the party's precarious position, with internal divisions and public disillusionment threatening its future viability.
How we got here
The Conservative Party has faced a series of setbacks, including poor approval ratings, internal leadership doubts, and rising competition from Reform UK led by Nigel Farage. Badenoch's leadership has struggled to reverse support declines, compounded by a series of gaffes and low party morale. Polls indicate a potential collapse in seats if an election were held today, with internal divisions and public disillusionment deepening.
Go deeper
Common question
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Why Is the Tory Party Conference So Quiet This Year?
The Conservative Party's annual conference is usually a lively event, but this year it feels notably subdued. Low attendance, internal dissent, and poor polling for leader Kemi Badenoch have raised questions about the party's current state. Many are wondering what this silence means for the future of the Tories and whether leadership changes are on the horizon. Below, we explore the key issues shaping the party's recent decline and what it could mean for UK politics.
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What Does the Latest Poll Say About Kemi Badenoch’s Leadership?
Recent polls and party conference reports suggest that Kemi Badenoch's leadership of the Conservative Party is facing significant challenges. With low support among party members and a quieter-than-usual conference, many are questioning her future as leader. Below, we explore the key questions about her leadership, party support, and what the future might hold for the Tories.
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Olúkẹmi Olufunto Adegoke Badenoch (née Adegoke; born 2 January 1980) is a British politician who has served as Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Conservative Party since November 2024. Badenoch previously worked in the Cabinet for prime minis
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Nigel Paul Farage is a British politician. He has been leader of the Brexit Party since 2019, and served as Member of the European Parliament for South East England from 1999 until the United Kingdom's exit from the EU in 2020.
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Reform UK is a populist political party in the United Kingdom. It was founded as The Brexit Party with a focus on Euroscepticism in November 2018, until being renamed on 6 January 2021.
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The Conservative Party, officially the Conservative and Unionist Party, and also known colloquially as the Tories, Tory Party, or simply the Conservatives, is a political party in the United Kingdom.
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Sir John Kevin Curtice FRSA FRSE FBA is a British political scientist who is currently Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow at the National Centre for Social Research.
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