What's happened
EU negotiations over budget allocations reveal tensions among member states, with Mediterranean countries gaining influence amid disputes with Poland and Hungary. Montenegro aims for EU accession by 2028, while the bloc's economic influence wanes, prompting questions about its geopolitical power.
What's behind the headline?
The EU's internal negotiations highlight a shift in power dynamics, with Mediterranean countries asserting more influence as Poland's relationship with the EU weakens due to democratic backsliding. This realignment suggests a more fragmented union where consensus on budget and policy is harder to achieve. The bloc's historical strength—its economic size and regulatory reach—is diminishing, as evidenced by the muted response to antitrust actions against major corporations like Google. The EU's attempt to fund industrial projects through a €410 billion fund faces challenges from big member states reluctant to fund projects in smaller countries, revealing a lack of ambition and cohesion. Meanwhile, Montenegro's progress toward EU membership and adoption of the euro underscores the bloc's strategic focus on regional stability and expansion, but also raises questions about the EU's capacity to maintain influence in a changing geopolitical landscape. Overall, the EU's geopolitical influence is waning, and its internal cohesion is under strain, foreshadowing a future where its role on the world stage may be diminished unless it addresses these internal divisions and reasserts its economic and political relevance.
What the papers say
Politico reports on the internal EU budget negotiations, highlighting France and Germany's role in setting funding figures and the rising influence of Mediterranean countries amid tensions with Poland and Hungary. The Independent discusses Montenegro's EU accession ambitions, economic growth, and plans to join the euro area, emphasizing the bloc's strategic expansion efforts. Nicholas Vinocur in Politico offers a critical perspective on the EU's declining global influence, comparing its current state to a mafia exerting extortionate influence, and notes the shift from assertive regulatory actions to more subdued responses, such as the delayed Google fine. Carlo Martuscelli also from Politico examines the EU's €410 billion industrial fund, pointing out the lack of ambition and the challenges big countries face in funding smaller nations' projects, signaling a broader decline in the EU's geopolitical power.
How we got here
The EU has long relied on its economic size and regulatory influence to project power globally. Recent internal disagreements over budget distribution, especially between traditional net payers like Poland and Hungary and Mediterranean countries, have exposed divisions. Meanwhile, efforts to expand membership, notably Montenegro's bid, are progressing amid broader geopolitical shifts following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has intensified EU accession efforts and highlighted regional vulnerabilities.
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The European Union is a political and economic union of 27 member states that are located primarily in Europe. Its members have a combined area of 4,233,255.3 km² and an estimated total population of about 447 million.