What's happened
On September 29, 2025, Moldova's pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) secured a parliamentary majority with just over 50% of the vote, winning 55 of 101 seats. The pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc trailed with about 24%. The election was marked by allegations of Russian interference, limited voting access for Moldovans in Russia, and heightened geopolitical tensions. PAS's victory strengthens Moldova's path toward EU integration amid ongoing regional instability.
What's behind the headline?
Geopolitical Stakes and Election Dynamics
The 2025 Moldovan parliamentary election was a clear geopolitical referendum, with the pro-European PAS consolidating power despite intense Russian efforts to sway the vote. Moscow's strategy, involving alleged financial backing of pro-Russian parties, disinformation campaigns, and attempts to limit diaspora voting access, ultimately backfired. The banning of two pro-Russian parties over illegal financing weakened the Patriotic Bloc's challenge.
The Role of the Diaspora and Information Warfare
The Moldovan diaspora, largely pro-EU, played a decisive role in PAS's victory, highlighting the importance of external voters in shaping domestic outcomes. Social media platforms like TikTok were battlegrounds for influence, with PAS leveraging pro-European sentiment and Russia's disinformation efforts failing to gain traction.
Challenges Ahead
Despite the victory, PAS's majority is somewhat reduced compared to 2021, signaling persistent domestic divisions and economic frustrations. The unresolved Transnistria conflict, with Russian troops stationed there, remains a significant security concern. Analysts warn that Moscow will continue hybrid tactics, including protests and attempts to destabilize the government.
Implications for EU Integration
PAS's win secures continuity in Moldova's EU accession efforts, but the path remains challenging. Reforms on democracy, rule of law, and minority rights are prerequisites for membership. European leaders have welcomed the result as a rejection of Russian interference and a mandate for European integration.
Forecast
Moldova will likely maintain its pro-European course under PAS and Prime Minister Dorin Recean, but the government must navigate internal economic pressures and external Russian destabilization attempts. The election underscores the broader post-Soviet shift away from Moscow's influence amid the Ukraine conflict, signaling a strategic loss for Russia in its "near abroad."
What the papers say
Al Jazeera's Dimitar Bechev highlights the broader geopolitical trend, noting that "Russia is losing ground amid the continuing Russian aggression against Ukraine," and that Moldova's election result "defied predictions of a tight race" due to internal divisions within pro-Russian forces and effective diaspora mobilization. The Guardian's Pjotr Sauer emphasizes the election as a "significant victory" for Maia Sandu's pro-European agenda, quoting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: "Moldova, you’ve done it again. No attempt to sow fear or division could break your resolve."
The New Arab reports on the scale of Russian interference, quoting PAS leader Igor Grosu: "Russia threw everything dirty it had into the fight... It's not only PAS that won the elections, the people won." It also notes protests called by pro-Russian opposition leader Igor Dodon, who alleges vote theft. The Moscow Times presents the Kremlin's perspective, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov criticizing limited polling stations for Moldovans in Russia and refusing to recognize the results, citing "some political forces’ disagreement."
The Times of Israel provides analysis on the fragility of PAS's majority, quoting analyst Andrei Curararu: "The Kremlin has bankrolled too big of an operation to stand down and could resort to protests, bribing PAS MPs and other tactics to disrupt forming a stable pro-European government." Politico adds context on the role of social media platforms like TikTok in election influence, noting proactive measures taken to remove disinformation.
Together, these sources paint a picture of a contested election with high stakes, where Moldova's pro-European forces prevailed despite significant Russian interference and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
How we got here
Moldova, a small ex-Soviet state bordering Ukraine and Romania, has long been divided between pro-European and pro-Russian political forces. Since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moldova has accelerated its EU integration efforts, applying for membership in early 2022 and gaining candidate status in 2022. The 2025 parliamentary elections were seen as a critical juncture between continuing this pro-European trajectory or reverting to Russian influence, especially given the presence of the pro-Russian breakaway region Transnistria.
Go deeper
- What role did Russian interference play in Moldova's election?
- How will PAS's victory affect Moldova's EU accession?
- What challenges does Moldova face after the election?
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