What's happened
During a podcast appearance, GOP vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance expressed confidence in Donald Trump's chances of winning the upcoming election, estimating a 60% probability. This contrasts with Vice President Kamala Harris's portrayal of her campaign as the underdog. Polling shows a tight race, but betting markets favor Trump.
Why it matters
What the papers say
In a recent podcast, J.D. Vance stated, "Honestly, I think that chart's about right," referring to a betting market projection that gave Trump a 57% chance of winning (Business Insider). This contrasts with Vice President Kamala Harris's self-description as the "underdog" in the race (The Independent). Vance also expressed skepticism about polling accuracy, suggesting that Democrats are more likely to respond to polls, which could skew results (Business Insider). Meanwhile, polling indicates a tight race, with many polls showing a 50-50 split between Trump and Harris (The Independent). The betting markets have consistently favored Trump, with Kalshi showing a 58% chance for Trump as of Wednesday (The Independent).
How we got here
As the U.S. presidential election approaches, early voting has begun, and polls indicate a competitive race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Vance's comments come amid fluctuating polling data and betting market predictions.
More on these topics
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Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
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Kamala Devi Harris is an American attorney and politician who has served as the junior United States Senator from California since 2017.
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James David Vance is an American author and venture capitalist. He is best known for his memoir Hillbilly Elegy, about Appalachian values and their relation to the social problems of his hometown, which attracted significant media attention during the 201