What's happened
Property markets in Scotland and New York show resilience despite political and economic pressures. Scotland's house prices continue to rise, while New York luxury sales increase despite fears of high-tax exodus. UK forecasts predict modest growth, but political debates threaten stability.
What's behind the headline?
Resilience in the face of political rhetoric
Despite widespread fears that tax hikes and political instability would drive the wealthy away, evidence suggests otherwise. In New York, luxury home sales increased by 31% in November, with high-value properties outperforming the market, contradicting predictions of mass exodus. Experts like Donna Olshan dismiss claims of wealthy flight, emphasizing that most high-net-worth individuals have strong attachments to the city and are unlikely to leave.
Scotland's steady growth
Scotland's housing market continues to outperform the rest of the UK, with prices rising at 4.5% for the nine months to September 2025. The market benefits from softer mortgage rates and increased lending, with local authorities reaching record highs in property values. The market's resilience is underpinned by limited policy disruptions and support schemes, suggesting stability into 2026.
UK market forecasts
The UK housing market is expected to grow modestly, with predictions of 2-4% price increases in 2026. Falling interest rates and improved affordability are likely to boost activity, especially among first-time buyers. Meanwhile, the government plans to reform mortgage rules to enhance access, reflecting a cautious optimism about the market's trajectory.
Political debates and market impact
Political debates around tax policies, especially in New York and the UK, continue to influence perceptions. However, data indicates that high-income individuals are less mobile than often assumed, with many remaining due to cultural, economic, and social ties. The fear of mass wealthy exodus appears overstated, and markets are demonstrating resilience despite political rhetoric.
Future outlook
Both Scotland and New York are poised for continued stability, with prices rising and activity improving. Political debates may persist, but economic fundamentals and market confidence suggest that these regions will maintain their resilience into 2026, barring unforeseen policy shocks.
What the papers say
The Independent reports that despite political fears, New York luxury home sales increased by 31% in November, with high-end properties outperforming the market, contradicting predictions of wealthy flight. Rosemary Gallagher from The Scotsman highlights Scotland's steady price growth and increased sales activity, supported by softer mortgage rates and stable supply. Meanwhile, The Guardian notes UK house prices are forecasted to grow by 2-4% in 2026, with improved affordability and mortgage reforms underpinning the outlook. These contrasting perspectives reveal that, despite political debates—such as potential tax hikes in New York and the UK—market fundamentals remain strong, and the anticipated exodus of wealthy individuals is unlikely to materialize, as most remain culturally and economically tied to their regions.
How we got here
Recent data shows Scotland's house prices have grown faster than in England and Wales, supported by increased mortgage lending and stable supply. In New York, despite political rhetoric about taxing the wealthy, high-end property sales and prices remain robust. UK forecasts predict modest price growth, supported by falling interest rates and improved affordability, even as political debates about taxes continue.
Go deeper
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