What's happened
On January 9-10, 2026, Russia launched a nuclear-capable Oreshnik hypersonic missile targeting western Ukraine near Lviv, marking only the second combat use of this weapon. The strike coincided with a large-scale Russian drone and missile attack on Kyiv, killing at least four people and damaging critical infrastructure amid freezing temperatures. The missile likely carried a dummy warhead and served as a warning to NATO allies amid ongoing peace talks and Western troop deployment plans.
What's behind the headline?
Strategic Significance of the Oreshnik Missile Use
Russia's deployment of the Oreshnik missile near the NATO border is a calculated psychological and geopolitical message rather than a purely military strike. The missile's hypersonic speed and nuclear capability underscore Moscow's intent to intimidate European allies and deter further Western military involvement in Ukraine. Despite limited physical damage, the strike signals Russia's readiness to escalate and challenge NATO's security commitments.
Timing and Diplomatic Context
The missile launch coincided with reported progress in US-led peace talks and announcements by Britain and France to deploy troops to Ukraine in a post-war scenario. This timing suggests Russia aims to disrupt diplomatic momentum and assert leverage by demonstrating advanced military capabilities.
Impact on the Conflict and Regional Security
The attack exacerbates tensions between Russia and the West, hardening positions on both sides. It risks expanding the conflict's scope by threatening NATO members indirectly and complicating peace negotiations. The continued targeting of Ukrainian energy infrastructure during winter further weaponizes civilian hardship, aiming to erode Ukrainian resistance.
Forecast
Russia will likely continue using high-profile missile strikes as strategic signaling tools to influence international diplomacy and maintain pressure on Ukraine and its allies. Western countries must balance military support with diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation. The conflict remains volatile, with the potential for broader regional destabilization if deterrence fails.
What the papers say
The Independent's Arpan Rai and Edith M. Lederer highlight the scale of Russia's recent missile and drone attacks, noting civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Kyiv and Kharkiv, alongside the use of the Oreshnik missile as a warning to NATO allies. Lederer quotes US Deputy Ambassador Tammy Bruce condemning Russia's "dangerous and inexplicable escalation" and emphasizing the need for peace negotiations, while Russia's UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia blames Ukraine for the impasse.
The Moscow Times' Fabien Zamora frames the missile strike as a psychological weapon aimed at Europe, with analysts describing it as a message to Western leaders amid setbacks for Russia. The New York Times' Valerie Hopkins echoes this, noting the missile's target near Poland and its role in signaling to European allies.
Sky News and France 24 provide detailed accounts of the missile's technical aspects and the broader Russian campaign to cripple Ukraine's energy infrastructure during winter, underscoring the humanitarian impact. The Times of Israel and Reuters emphasize the missile's nuclear capability and the geopolitical implications, including Western troop deployment plans and sanctions.
Together, these sources illustrate a multifaceted narrative: Russia's missile strike serves both as a military action and a strategic message to NATO and the West, occurring amid complex diplomatic efforts and escalating conflict dynamics.
How we got here
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the conflict has escalated with repeated missile and drone attacks targeting civilian infrastructure. Russia's recent use of the Oreshnik missile, capable of carrying nuclear warheads and hypersonic speeds, signals a new phase of psychological and military pressure on Ukraine and its Western allies, coinciding with stalled peace negotiations and increased Western military support for Ukraine.
Go deeper
- What is the Oreshnik missile and why is it significant?
- How have NATO and Western countries responded to Russia's missile strike?
- What impact have the recent Russian attacks had on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure?
Common question
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Why Did Russia Fire a Hypersonic Missile at Ukraine?
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