What's happened
On January 9-10, 2026, Russia launched a nuclear-capable Oreshnik hypersonic missile at western Ukraine near Lviv, marking only the second combat use of this weapon. The strike coincided with a large-scale Russian drone and missile attack on Kyiv, killing at least four. The missile likely carried a dummy warhead and served as a warning to NATO allies amid ongoing peace talks and Western troop deployment plans.
What's behind the headline?
Strategic Signaling Over Destruction
Russia's use of the Oreshnik missile in western Ukraine is less about battlefield impact and more about psychological warfare and geopolitical messaging. The missile's proximity to NATO borders and its nuclear capability underscore Moscow's intent to warn European allies against deeper involvement.
Limited Physical Damage, High Political Stakes
The missile likely carried dummy warheads, causing minimal physical damage but maximum political alarm. This aligns with Russia's pattern of using advanced weaponry to project strength amid setbacks, including diplomatic isolation and military challenges.
Escalation Amid Peace Talks
The strike coincides with reported progress in US-led peace negotiations and Western plans to deploy troops in Ukraine, signaling Russia's resistance to external security guarantees for Kyiv. Moscow's framing of NATO forces as legitimate targets raises the risk of broader conflict escalation.
Impact on Civilians and Infrastructure
Concurrent Russian drone and missile attacks have severely disrupted Kyiv's power, heat, and water supplies during harsh winter conditions, intensifying humanitarian concerns and demonstrating Russia's strategy to 'weaponize winter' against Ukrainian civilians.
Forecast
Expect Russia to continue using high-profile weapons like the Oreshnik for strategic signaling rather than frequent battlefield deployment due to cost and limited operational benefit. Western responses will likely focus on bolstering air defenses and reinforcing security commitments to Ukraine, while diplomatic tensions remain high.
What the papers say
The New York Times' Valerie Hopkins highlights the missile's symbolic target near NATO borders, stating, "The Oreshnik is not a weapon of war against Ukraine; it is a weapon of war against Europe." The Moscow Times' Fabien Zamora emphasizes the missile's psychological role, quoting analysts who describe it as "a sign of a fearful, worried leader" and a "psychological weapon" rather than a tool of mass destruction. Sky News and Reuters report Moscow's claim that the strike was retaliation for an alleged Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence, a claim denied by Ukraine and Western officials. The Times of Israel details the missile's technical capabilities and the broader context of escalating attacks, noting the missile's potential to carry nuclear warheads and its use as a warning to NATO allies. France 24 and AP News focus on the humanitarian impact of Russia's broader drone and missile attacks on Kyiv, with significant power outages and civilian casualties amid freezing temperatures. These varied perspectives collectively illustrate the multifaceted nature of the strike—as a military action, political message, and humanitarian crisis.
How we got here
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, both sides have targeted critical infrastructure. Russia aims to cripple Ukraine's power grid to 'weaponize winter,' while Ukraine targets Russian energy sites to cut military funding. The Oreshnik missile, first used in 2024, is a nuclear-capable hypersonic weapon designed to intimidate NATO and European countries supporting Ukraine.
Go deeper
- What is the Oreshnik missile and why is it significant?
- How are NATO countries responding to the missile strike?
- What impact are the attacks having on civilians in Ukraine?
Common question
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What Does Russia's Hypersonic Missile Test Mean for Ukraine and the West?
Russia's recent claim of testing a hypersonic missile in Ukraine has sparked global attention. Many wonder what this development really signifies—does it change the military balance, or is it more about psychological warfare? Below, we explore the key questions surrounding this event, including what Russia is claiming, how it impacts the Ukraine conflict, and what Western leaders are saying about this escalation.
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