NATO summit confronts US pullback

What's happened

NATO leaders have met in Ankara after months of U.S. threats to scale back forces in Europe and repeated U.S. demands that allies raise defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Tensions over the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and U.S. troop reviews have strained transatlantic ties, while European governments are increasing procurement and planning to assume more conventional defence responsibilities.

What's behind the headline?

What is actually happening

• The United States has publicly reduced its security footprint and is reviewing troop levels in Europe while pressing allies to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035.
• European capitals are increasing orders and capability projects, including surveillance aircraft and ship and missile procurements, to shoulder more conventional defence tasks.

Who is driving the dynamic

• The Trump administration is driving a shift by linking continued U.S. presence to allied spending and political loyalty; officials including Matthew Whitaker and Pete Hegseth have framed reductions as leverage.
• European leaders and defence ministers are responding by converting budget pledges into procurement and industrial cooperation to avoid a sudden capability gap.

Immediate consequences

• NATO will move from public commitments to procurement and force-planning decisions at the Ankara summit and in follow-up EU and NATO meetings.
• The U.S. review of force posture will force Europe to produce roadmaps for when and how it will assume missions now carried by U.S. forces.

Forecast

• Europe will increase defence production and strike licensing and procurement deals with U.S. firms to maintain interoperability; this will accelerate defence industrial consolidation in Europe.
• The alliance will formalise burden-shifting mechanisms but will not immediately replace U.S. extended deterrence; NATO’s political architecture will evolve to emphasise European capability ownership while retaining U.S. nuclear and strategic roles.

Risk and friction

• The process will create political friction between capitals that can afford rapid rearmament and those that cannot; Trump’s public attacks on specific allies will increase short-term diplomatic strain and complicate operational planning.
• A poorly sequenced U.S. drawdown will create temporary gaps in intelligence, surveillance and command roles that Europe will struggle to fill quickly.

How we got here

Pressure from the United States has forced NATO to move from pledges to implementation. Last year allies agreed to 5% of GDP on defense by 2035; Washington has reviewed its force posture and threatened withdrawals while Europe has committed heavier spending and new procurement deals.

Our analysis

Several outlets frame the same event through different lenses. Politico (Ivo Daalder) has argued that U.S. reliability has deteriorated and that Europe "needs to take on far greater responsibility"; Politico warns leaders missed an opportunity to create a clear roadmap for Europe to assume U.S. roles. CNBC reported Trump leaving Ankara without new NATO commitments on the Iran conflict and quoted Nicholas Burns calling for international help; CNBC emphasised Trump’s mixed signals and his comments that "they didn't want to help us". Al Jazeera placed the rift at the centre of the summit, noting Trump called the relationship "one-sided" and citing Ian Lesser that the alliance is entering "a period of profound adjustment." The Independent and AP focused on the spending pledge — 5% of GDP by 2035 — and on Mark Rutte’s push to turn commitments into concrete results; both outlets noted Spain’s qualms and uneven progress toward the old 2% target. Politico (Paul McLeary) and CNBC highlighted U.S. officials’ commercial angle: Matthew Whitaker and others are linking higher allied purchases of U.S. equipment to political goodwill and faster arms sales. Reuters and Independent reporting of NATO exercises and U.S.-hosted drills shows that working-level military ties remain active despite political tensions, a point amplifying the Japan Times and New Arab lines that Turkey and other partners are seeking inclusion in European defence initiatives. Together, the sources show a NATO that is converting spending pledges into procurement but is also coping with political volatility from Washington that will force Europe to deliver capability plans quickly.

Go deeper

• How fast can Europe field the air, naval and ISR capabilities the U.S. is reducing?
• What specific procurement deals will Europe announce after the Ankara summit?
• How will NATO manage command roles if U.S. presence continues to decline?

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