Nato target 3.5% faces orderly path in UK defence drive

What's happened

Nato's secretary general has pressed the UK to show a credible path to reach 3.5% of GDP on defence by 2035, saying yearly increments are essential. In London, ministers acknowledge the need for gradual steps, with the spending review next year likely to shape the route. The debate follows Labour and Burnham's commitment to the 3.5% goal and ongoing pressure from allies.

What's behind the headline?

Brief

• Rutte is urging the UK to adopt a credible, incremental path toward 3.5% defence spending by 2035, arguing that the target cannot be achieved in a single leap.
• British officials acknowledge the goal and say yearly increments will be set out in the spending review next year, but no interim milestone has been locked in publicly.

What this means for readers

• The UK faces a tight budget environment as it debates how to fund higher defence outlays alongside welfare, healthcare and growth measures.
• The outcome of the 2027 spending review will determine how quickly the UK can adjust its fiscal trajectory toward the Nato target, potentially affecting public services and taxation.

Risks and implications

• If a credible path is not established, UK credibility within Nato could tighten, complicating alliances amid rising security challenges in Europe and the Middle East.
• Growth in the economy is seen as essential to distributing the cost of higher defence spending across society.

How we got here

The push comes as Britain faces financial constraints and political turnover ahead of the next spending review. UK has pledged to lift defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, but current plans project 2.7% by 2028/9. Recent meetings in London and Oxfordshire have highlighted the tension between fiscal reality and alliance commitments, with Nato urging a credible path.

Our analysis

The Guardian, BBC Business, The Guardian (UK), BBC (UK) — provide a composite view of the UK’s defence spending trajectory and Nato expectations. Direct quotes illustrate the tension between commitment and fiscal constraints.

Go deeper

• Is the 3.5% target still realistic for the UK given current fiscal pressures?
• What interim milestones could be announced in the 2027 spending review?
• How might changes to defence funding affect public services?

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