What's happened
A recent YouGov poll indicates only 17% of Britons would vote Labour if an election were held tomorrow. The survey highlights rising support for Reform UK and the Green Party, with Labour facing challenges from both the left and right ahead of upcoming local elections. The results reflect a fractured political environment and potential risks for Labour's leadership.
What's behind the headline?
The poll underscores a significant realignment in UK politics, with five parties now holding at least 15% support. Labour's declining support, especially among younger voters where the Greens lead at 40%, signals a potential long-term challenge to its traditional base. The recent Welsh by-election loss, the first in over a century for Labour in Caerphilly, exemplifies the party's struggles to retain its core voters. Meanwhile, Reform UK’s surge indicates a growing right-wing populist sentiment, while the Greens' rise among youth suggests increasing environmental and progressive appeal. The political environment is increasingly fractured, with Labour facing threats from both ends of the spectrum, which could complicate its strategy ahead of national and regional votes. The party's leadership must address these shifts swiftly to prevent further erosion of support, or risk being overshadowed by emerging alternatives.
What the papers say
The coverage from The Japan Times, Bloomberg, and The Independent presents a consistent picture of Labour's declining support and the rise of Reform UK and the Greens. The Japan Times emphasizes the fractured landscape, while Bloomberg highlights the specific polling figures. The Independent adds context about recent electoral defeats and the implications for Labour’s future, including warnings from political analysts about the party’s prospects in upcoming elections. The articles collectively suggest that Labour’s current challenges are both electoral and strategic, with the party needing a significant reset to regain voter confidence amid a highly competitive and divided political environment.
How we got here
The poll, commissioned by the Times and published on October 28, 2025, shows Labour's support at its lowest since 2001, with only 17%. Support for Reform UK surged to 27%, and the Green Party reached a record 16%. The results follow recent electoral setbacks for Labour, including a historic loss in a Welsh by-election, raising concerns about the party's ability to maintain its voter base amid a shifting political landscape. The upcoming local elections in May are seen as a critical test for Labour's standing in power.
Go deeper
- What does this poll mean for Labour's leadership?
- Could Reform UK or the Greens become the main opposition?
- How might upcoming elections reshape UK politics?
More on these topics
-
The Green Party, also known as the Green Party UK, was a Green political party in the United Kingdom.
Prior to 1985 it was called the Ecology Party, and before that PEOPLE. In 1990, it separated into three political parties:
the Green Party of England and
-
The Labour Party, commonly Labour, is one of the two main political parties in the United Kingdom, along with the Conservative Party. It sits on the centre-left of the left–right political spectrum, and has been described as an alliance of social democr
-
The Conservative Party, officially the Conservative and Unionist Party, and also known colloquially as the Tories, Tory Party, or simply the Conservatives, is a political party in the United Kingdom.
-
Liberal Democrats may refer to:
supporters of liberal democracy
Liberal Democrats (UK), a political party in the United Kingdom
Liberal Democratic Party (Australia), a political party in Australia, also known as Liberal Democrats
left-liberals or social.
-
Sir Keir Rodney Starmer KCB QC MP is a British politician and former lawyer who has served as Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition since 2020. He has been Member of Parliament for Holborn and St Pancras since 2015.
-
YouGov is a British international Internet-based market research and data analytics firm, headquartered in the UK, with operations in Europe, North America, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific.