What's happened
Since July 2025, Azerbaijan has taken a more assertive stance against Russia following the deaths of two Azerbaijani men during police raids in Yekaterinburg. The incident has led to diplomatic protests, cancellations of cultural events, and increased regional alignment with Turkey and Pakistan, signaling a shift away from Moscow's influence.
What's behind the headline?
The recent escalation reflects Azerbaijan's strategic shift towards asserting sovereignty and regional independence. The violent police raids in Yekaterinburg, coupled with the deaths of Azerbaijani nationals, serve as a clear message that Baku is no longer willing to accept Moscow's influence without challenge. The diplomatic protests, cancellation of cultural exchanges, and arrests of Russian media personnel indicate a deliberate move to weaken Russia's soft power and demonstrate Azerbaijan's resolve. This shift aligns with broader regional trends, including Kazakhstan's distancing from Moscow and Armenia's questioning of Russian security guarantees. The alliance with Turkey and Pakistan, exemplified by military deals and trilateral summits, signals a new regional bloc that could reshape the Caucasus and Central Asian geopolitics. The outcome will likely be a more fragmented post-Soviet space, with Azerbaijan emerging as a key player in a multipolar regional order. Moscow's traditional influence is waning, and its reliance on nationalist rhetoric and diaspora policing will not suffice to maintain control. The next phase will see Azerbaijan deepen its strategic partnerships, potentially supporting projects like the Zangezur corridor, further isolating Russia and consolidating Turkic influence across the region.
What the papers say
The South China Morning Post highlights Azerbaijan's efforts to assert independence through strategic alliances, emphasizing its pushback against Moscow and Tehran, and its strengthening ties with Turkey, Pakistan, and China. Meanwhile, Al Jazeera provides detailed coverage of the recent police raids in Yekaterinburg, describing the violent nature of the arrests, the deaths of Azerbaijani nationals, and the diplomatic fallout, including Azerbaijan's protests and cultural cancellations. Both sources underscore Azerbaijan's shift from cautious balancing to active assertion of sovereignty, with the SCMP framing it within a broader multipolar contest reminiscent of the 'Great Game,' and Al Jazeera focusing on the immediate human rights concerns and diplomatic tensions. The contrasting perspectives reveal a complex picture: one of strategic geopolitical realignment and the other of escalating internal repression and diplomatic conflict, both pointing to a significant transformation in regional power dynamics.
How we got here
Tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia have grown since a passenger plane was shot down in December 2024, with Azerbaijan accusing Russia of unintentional involvement. The recent police raids in Yekaterinburg, resulting in Azerbaijani deaths and injuries, have further strained relations. Azerbaijan has historically balanced its foreign policy but is now adopting a firmer stance, strengthening ties with Turkey and Pakistan amid declining Russian influence in the region.
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