ANC faces a fracturing coalition era as local results dent its dominance

What's happened

The ANC remains the largest party in South Africa but has lost ground in local elections, with vote shares around 31-32%. Coalition talks are intensifying in major metros as rivals and splinter groups seek governance pacts. The outcome could redefine the country’s municipal landscape and party dynamics.

What's behind the headline?

Analysis

• The vote marks a clear erosion of the ANC’s electoral dominance after years of corruption scandals and service-delivery failures, moving South Africa toward a more fragmented multiparty system.
• Coalitions are now the default path in cities like Johannesburg and Tshwane, with the DA and ActionSA positioned to shape local governance even without an outright majority.
• Jacob Zuma’s MK Party has carved out a notable niche, potentially altering traditional patronage networks and coalition math in key metros.
• The leadership will need to confront service delivery, corruption perceptions and internal party unity to regain voter confidence; otherwise, governance will be shaped by a constantly shifting alliance landscape.
• The strategic question for voters is how coalitions will affect policy on housing, electricity, water and infrastructure in the coming year.

Forecast: The municipal balance will remain fluid in the near term as talks continue; a few coalitions could redefine policy directions in major cities and influence national political recalibrations.

How we got here

Local elections across South Africa have delivered a stark verdict on the ANC’s decade-long governance. The party has lost ground in major cities, prompting coalition negotiations with rivals like the DA and ActionSA. Zuma’s MK Party has emerged as a significant third force in some councils, signaling a more fragmented political environment ahead of national elections.

Our analysis

Al Jazeera reports a sustained ANC decline with 31% in latest local results; AP News notes the need for coalitions in major cities; Arab News highlights the long-running erosion of ANC support since 2021. All emphasize service delivery failures and corruption as drivers of voter discontent.

Go deeper

• Which coalitions are most likely to form in your city?
• What services are voters most concerned about in the near term?
• How could MK Party influence local policy in key metros?

More on these topics

• Johannesburg - City in South Africa

  Johannesburg, informally known as Jozi, Joburg, or "The City of Gold", is the largest city in South Africa and one of the 50 largest urban areas in the world.

• Pretoria - Administrative capital of South Africa located in the Gauteng province

  Pretoria ( prih-TOR-ee-ə, pree-; Afrikaans: [prəˈtʉəria] ) is the administrative capital of South Africa, serving as the seat of the executive branch of government, and as the host to all foreign embassies to the country. Pretoria straddles the Apies

• Democratic Alliance - Political party

  The Democratic Alliance is a liberal political party in South Africa, sitting on the centre to centre-right of the political spectrum. It has been the second-largest party in the country since its foundation in 2000. Its main rival is the African National

• Jacob Zuma - Former President of South Africa

  Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma is a South African politician who served as the fourth democratically elected President of South Africa from the 2009 general election until his resignation on 14 February 2018.

• African National Congress - Political party

  The African National Congress is the Republic of South Africa's governing political party. It has been the ruling party of post-apartheid South Africa since the election of Nelson Mandela in the 1994 election, winning every election since then.

• Cyril Ramaphosa - President of South Africa

  Matamela Cyril Ramaphosa is a South African politician and the fifth and current President of South Africa. Previously an anti-apartheid activist, trade union leader and businessman, Ramaphosa served as the Deputy President of South Africa from 2014 to 20

• Cape Town - Capital of South Africa

  Cape Town is the second most populous city in South Africa after Johannesburg and also the legislative capital of South Africa.

• Nelson Mandela - Former President of South Africa

  Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela was a South African anti-apartheid revolutionary, political leader, and philanthropist who served as the president of South Africa from 1994 to 1999.

• South Africa - Country in Southern Africa

  South Africa, officially the Republic of South Africa, is the southernmost country in Africa. With over 59 million people, it is the world's 24th-most populous nation and covers an area of 1,221,037 square kilometres.