What's happened
Global fertiliser trade remains under pressure as the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues to affect urea, ammonia and sulphur shipments. With several regions facing rising costs and tighter supplies, farmers face higher input prices and potential yield impacts in the coming seasons.
What's behind the headline?
What this means for farmers and policy
- Fertiliser inputs are becoming more expensive and less predictable as shipments are constrained through Hormuz.
- Nitrogen-based fertilisers (like urea) are particularly affected, with potential knock-on effects on yields and grain quality if applications are reduced.
- Regions importing large shares of fertilisers face higher production costs and may see tighter buffers in stocks, prompting calls for regional procurement and stockpiling.
- Governments and regional bodies are under pressure to monitor price moves, coordinate shipments, and explore diversifying supplier routes.
- The risk to food security persists in import-dependent economies, especially where smallholders rely on timely fertiliser access to sustain yields.
Forecasts suggest that even if hostilities ease, clearing backlogs will take weeks and shortages could persist for months. Readiness measures—enhanced market intelligence, regional procurement pools, and strategic stock reserves—will shape resilience in the coming growing seasons.
These dynamics will likely accelerate conversations around longer-term moves toward more localised production, diversified supply chains, and greater investment in soil health and regenerative practices as mitigations against future shocks.
How we got here
The current fertiliser disruption stems from the broader Middle East conflict impacting shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Reports indicate widespread concerns about supplies of urea, ammonia, sulphur and other fertilisers, with production and port facilities affected in multiple countries. The situation mirrors past shocks, but is unfolding in a context of variable crop prices and evolving geopolitical risk, amplifying uncertainty for import-dependent regions.
Our analysis
All Africa has highlighted fertiliser as a latent vulnerability linked to the Hormuz corridor. The Times of Israel discusses price spikes in urea and broader input costs, noting that a significant portion of global fertiliser trade passes through Hormuz and that current disruptions could tighten supply for farmers. Al Jazeera emphasizes Africa-specific risks, including reliance on imports and potential impacts on smallholder farmers. SBS highlights Australia’s ongoing dependency on imported fertilisers and the risk to crop yields if supplies remain constrained. Taken together, these sources illustrate a multi-regional risk to fertiliser access and the potential cascading effects on food production and prices.
Go deeper
- Which regions are most exposed to fertiliser price volatility right now?
- What immediate steps can farmers take to mitigate input shortages?
- Are there any proposed regional stock-piling or procurement initiatives currently under discussion?
More on these topics
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Urea - Chemical compound
Urea, also known as carbamide, is an organic compound with chemical formula CO(NH₂)₂. This amide has two –NH₂ groups joined by a carbonyl functional group.
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Strait of Hormuz - Strait
The Strait of Hormuz is a strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is one of the world's most strategically important choke points.