What's happened
On March 25, 2025, the US announced agreements from talks in Riyadh aimed at ensuring safe navigation in the Black Sea and preventing military use of commercial vessels. Both Ukraine and Russia expressed conditional support, relying on US enforcement for compliance. The discussions mark a potential revival of the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative, previously abandoned by Russia.
What's behind the headline?
Key Points of the Agreement
- Ceasefire Measures: Both nations agreed to cease using force and allow safe navigation in the Black Sea.
- Energy Infrastructure: The agreement includes measures to prevent strikes on energy facilities.
- US Role: The US will assist in restoring Russia's access to agricultural markets and facilitate prisoner exchanges for Ukraine.
Implications
- Conditional Compliance: Both sides have indicated that the agreement's success hinges on US enforcement, raising questions about its durability.
- Russia's Stance: Russia's insistence on preconditions for the deal's activation suggests ongoing skepticism about Ukraine's commitment.
- Zelensky's Position: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russia of manipulation, indicating a lack of trust in the negotiations.
Future Outlook
- The effectiveness of this agreement will depend on the willingness of both parties to adhere to its terms and the US's ability to enforce compliance. Continued military actions, such as recent drone strikes by Russia, could undermine the fragile progress made.
What the papers say
The Independent reported that the US delegation's talks in Riyadh resulted in agreements to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea, with both sides relying on US enforcement for compliance. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov confirmed the partial ceasefire, emphasizing that any movement of Russian military vessels outside the eastern Black Sea would be seen as a violation (Al Jazeera). Meanwhile, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov highlighted the need for clear guarantees from the US to ensure compliance, indicating a lack of trust in Ukraine's adherence to the agreement (The Moscow Times). The New York Times noted that while this marks a significant step towards a ceasefire, it still falls short of a full resolution, reflecting the complexities of the ongoing conflict.
How we got here
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which began with Russia's invasion in February 2022, has severely impacted maritime operations in the Black Sea. Previous agreements, such as the Black Sea Grain Initiative, aimed to facilitate safe shipping but were abandoned by Russia in 2023, leading to increased tensions and military actions in the region.
Go deeper
- What are the implications of the Black Sea agreement?
- How does this affect the ongoing conflict?
- What role is the US playing in these negotiations?
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