What's happened
The World Meteorological Organization has signalled the likely development of El Niño later this year, with subsurface Pacific heat rising and forecasts suggesting stronger heat waves, droughts in some regions, and altered hurricane activity. Experts caution models in spring remain uncertain, while the outcome could prompt notable shifts in rainfall and temperatures worldwide.
What's behind the headline?
Analysis
- El Niño is expected to develop mid-year, with models showing high confidence in onset but spring forecasts remaining less certain.
- The mechanism involves warm Pacific water adversely affecting global heat distribution, likely increasing heat waves and drought in some areas while boosting heavy rainfall and floods in others.
- A strong or 'super' El Niño could substantially amplify weather extremes, though it is not guaranteed to reach that magnitude.
- Regions should prepare for hotter summers and shifts in rainfall; hurricane activity in the Atlantic may be suppressed as Pacific heat redistributes atmospheric energy.
- This update emphasizes the need for resilience planning in climate-affected sectors such as agriculture, water management, and disaster readiness.
How we got here
El Niño is a natural warming of equatorial Pacific waters that redistributes heat and alters global weather. The Pacific currently shows subsurface heat moving toward the surface, a precursor to El Niño. If realized, the event typically lasts 9–12 months and tends to intensify existing weather patterns.
Our analysis
The Independent quotes WMO projections and climate experts; All Africa reports on regional impacts and warnings; The Guardian highlights research on wind pattern shifts affecting rainfall forecasts.
Go deeper
- How will El Niño affect your local summer weather?
- Which regions are most at risk of drought or floods this year?
- What steps should households take to prepare for hotter temperatures and storms?