Trump’s endorsements face costly tests

What's happened

Recent Republican runoffs in Georgia and Alabama have produced mixed results for former President Donald Trump. In Georgia, Mike Collins has won the Senate nomination while Rick Jackson — a self-funding billionaire who spent over $100 million — has defeated Trump’s choice for governor, Burt Jones. In Alabama, Trump-backed Barry Moore has prevailed in a Senate runoff, reinforcing the influence of endorsements across parts of the GOP.

What's behind the headline?

What happened and why it matters

• President Trump has endorsed multiple Republican primary contenders this spring. Some endorsements have helped candidates win; others have not. Georgia and Alabama have provided direct tests of his sway.
• In Georgia, Representative Mike Collins has won the Republican Senate nomination and will challenge Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff in November. Collins ran as a Trump loyalist and has tied his campaign to immigration enforcement.
• Also in Georgia, health-care executive Rick Jackson has beaten Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones after spending more than $100 million of his own money, showing that massive self-funding can overcome a presidential endorsement.
• In Alabama, Rep. Barry Moore — who had Trump’s backing — has won his runoff, underscoring the president’s continuing influence in some deep-red states.

Who benefits

• Rick Jackson has bought himself a statewide GOP nomination and will face Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms in November; his victory shows wealthy newcomers will be decisive in some primaries.
• Collins’s win hands Republicans a clear nominee to contest a high-stakes Senate seat where Democrats have invested heavily; national groups will now direct resources accordingly.

What this will change

• Republican strategists will recalibrate endorsement strategies: endorsements will continue to help — especially in conservative states — but they will not guarantee victory where opponents can outspend or where local power brokers intervene.
• The November map will harden: Collins will force Democrats to defend an incumbent with a large campaign war chest, while Jackson’s nomination will set up a governor’s race framed by outside spending and candidate wealth.

Short-term forecast

• National Republican leaders will increase fundraising and ad spending in Georgia to protect the Senate seat; Democratic groups will hold their ground behind Ossoff.
• Expect more late endorsements and high-dollar self-funding in other primaries this summer as candidates test whether money or Trump’s brand delivers better results.

How we got here

Trump has been actively endorsing GOP primary candidates this year. Many of his picks have won, but heavy self-funding and local power brokers like Gov. Brian Kemp have flipped some outcomes. These runoffs are shaping which Republicans will contest competitive November general elections.

Our analysis

The New York Times has highlighted the mixed fortunes of Mr. Trump’s picks. Katie Glueck noted that the president’s choice in Georgia’s governor primary lost to Rick Jackson, who "spent more than $100 million of his own money" (New York Times Business). Patricia Mazzei emphasised that Collins’s victory over Derek Dooley was a setback for Gov. Brian Kemp, writing that Collins had campaigned as a MAGA candidate and will challenge Jon Ossoff (New York Times Business). Politico framed Jackson’s win as a $100 million asterisk on Trump’s primary record, saying Jackson’s self-funding "helped drown out" Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (Politico). AP News gave a concise account of results and fact-checked a range of claims, reporting that Jackson’s spending topped $100 million and noting that Trump’s endorsements succeeded in other contests, including in Alabama (AP). Al Jazeera stressed that Republicans split their support in Georgia — nominating Trump’s Senate pick while rejecting his governor pick — and quoted Jackson’s social-media congratulations from the president (Al Jazeera Staff). Across outlets, the common thread is clear: reporters pointed to the power of endorsements in many contests while showing that vast personal spending can override those endorsements. The Times and Politico used specific figures and campaign context to show how money and local politics reshaped outcomes; AP focused on concise takeaways and verification; Al Jazeera emphasized the political symbolism of split results in Georgia.

Go deeper

• How will national party committees shift spending in Georgia after Collins’s nomination?
• Will Jackson’s self-funded campaign strategy become a template for other wealthy entrants?
• How will Kemp react to losing influence in the races he backed?

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