Drone campaign in Nato airspace is likely Kremlin tactic

What's happened

The International Institute for Strategic Studies has found that a Russian drone campaign operated across Europe from 2024 to 2026, with HAV Dolphin docked near Hull and other vessels acting as relays. The effort targeted UK and continental sites, with officials saying Moscow acted with substantial impunity and evidence points to Putin's involvement.

What's behind the headline?

Analysis

• The report reframes drone sightings as a sustained, state-backed campaign rather than isolated incidents.
• It underscores a gap between traditional air-defence architectures and modern, low-flying UAV threats.
• The use of shadow ships is highlighted as a tactic to evade sanctions and complicate attribution.
• Readers should watch for how NATO and member states adjust rules of engagement and investment in counterdrone tech.

What this means for readers: expect tougher security checks at sensitive sites and potentially higher defence spending in coming months.

How we got here

Drones were sighted over four US bases in the UK in 2024, prompting questions about air defences. IISS traced movements of the HAV Dolphin and Seasons 1 to connect drone activity to Russian operators. Denmark and other countries are strengthening counterdrone measures as part of broader defense reviews.

Our analysis

Independent: The Independent reports on IISS findings linking HAV Dolphin to a Kremlin-backed drone campaign across Europe (Aug 2024–Feb 2026). Guardian: The Guardian covers the 144 incidents with emphasis on impunity and technical challenges of drone detection near RAF bases. Reuters/AP: Reuters notes Putin’s attribution hesitancy, while AP highlights NATO’s position and defense responses. Times: The Times first published the analysis of Russia’s drone campaign and shadow fleet usage.

Go deeper

• What specific sites are considered highest risk for drone incursions?
• How might upcoming counterdrone investments affect local security and civil aviation?
• What evidence remains to be gathered to attribute the campaign directly to Moscow?

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