What's happened
As of late July 2025, Ukraine and Russia prepare for a third round of peace talks in Istanbul, led by Ukraine's Rustem Umerov. Despite ongoing heavy Russian drone and missile attacks causing civilian casualties and damage across Ukraine, including in Cherkasy and Odesa, both sides continue military offensives. The Kremlin remains skeptical about a near-term breakthrough, while Ukraine calls for a summit between Zelensky and Putin by August's end.
What's behind the headline?
Persistent Conflict Despite Diplomacy
The upcoming third round of peace talks in Istanbul underscores the entrenched stalemate between Ukraine and Russia. Despite diplomatic efforts, including prisoner exchanges, neither side has shown willingness to compromise on core issues such as territorial control and military support. The Kremlin's public skepticism about a breakthrough reflects a strategic posture to maintain pressure while negotiating.
Military Pressure as a Negotiation Lever
Russia's intensified drone and missile attacks, including strikes on civilian areas like Cherkasy, Odesa, and Kyiv, serve dual purposes: degrading Ukraine's military capacity and signaling resolve in negotiations. Ukraine's retaliatory drone strikes on southern Russian Black Sea regions indicate a tit-for-tat escalation rather than de-escalation.
Leadership and Negotiation Dynamics
Ukraine's appointment of Rustem Umerov to lead its delegation signals a focus on security and prisoner issues, aiming to build trust. Zelensky's call for a direct summit with Putin by August aims to elevate talks but faces Kremlin doubts about timing. The lack of a Russian delegation announcement and Peskov's comments on the complexity of negotiations suggest cautious, protracted diplomacy.
Forecast and Impact
Given the ongoing military offensives and hardened positions, a comprehensive ceasefire or peace deal remains unlikely in the short term. The conflict will continue to affect civilian populations severely, with drone warfare becoming a persistent threat. International actors, including the US and EU, continue to influence the conflict through military aid and sanctions, shaping the negotiation environment.
Relevance to Readers
The conflict's continuation affects global security, energy markets, and geopolitical alignments. Civilians in Ukraine face daily risks, while international stakeholders watch for shifts that could alter the war's trajectory. Understanding the interplay between military actions and diplomacy is crucial for grasping the conflict's future developments.
What the papers say
Arpan Rai in The Independent reports on the recent drone attacks causing civilian injuries, including a nine-year-old, and highlights Ukraine's call for a peace summit by August's end, noting the Kremlin's skepticism as reported by RIA. The Moscow Times and Al Jazeera provide Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov's cautious stance, emphasizing the complexity of negotiations and the absence of a clear timeline, with Al Jazeera detailing the scale of Russian drone assaults and Ukrainian responses. The New Arab and South China Morning Post focus on the failed previous talks in Istanbul, prisoner exchanges, and Russia's hardline demands, while also noting US President Trump's pressure on Russia for a peace deal and continued military aid to Ukraine. AP News underscores the ongoing Russian offensives and heavy drone attacks, tempering expectations for progress despite the scheduled talks. Together, these sources paint a picture of a conflict marked by simultaneous diplomatic efforts and intensified military actions, with both sides entrenched and civilian populations bearing the brunt.
How we got here
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the conflict has persisted with intermittent peace talks in Istanbul. Two prior rounds yielded prisoner exchanges but no ceasefire. Russia demands territorial concessions and rejection of Western military aid, which Ukraine rejects. Both sides have escalated drone and missile strikes, causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.
Go deeper
- What are the main obstacles to a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia?
- How are drone attacks affecting civilians in Ukraine?
- What role do international actors play in the Ukraine-Russia conflict?
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Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It is the second-largest European country after Russia, which borders it to the east and northeast.
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