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Gold retreats as U.S. inflation data tempers bets on rate hikes

What's happened

Gold has trimmed losses after U.S. inflation data showed softer price pressures, but the metal remains under pressure as energy costs and a wary stance on rate rises weigh on demand. Copper and precious metals also move lower on the session.

What's behind the headline?

Key takeaways

  • Gold has given back early gains and is trading lower as inflation data reinforces a hawkish tilt in markets.
  • Higher energy costs feed into inflation expectations, supporting yields and a stronger dollar.
  • Investors remain wary about the pace of Fed rate cuts, with the next move likely to be data-dependent.

What this means for readers

  • If inflation stays sticky, markets may price in higher-for-longer rates, pressuring gold and other non-yielding assets.
  • Energy prices could continue to influence the cost of living and borrowing costs, affecting household budgets and investment decisions.

How we got here

Investors have watched inflation measures closely as they gauge Federal Reserve policy. April PCE data showed 3.8% annual inflation, while the month-on-month rise was 0.4%, and Fed minutes have signaled openness to higher rates if needed. Geopolitical tension with Iran has added to energy price pressures, influencing market sentiment around safe-haven assets.

Our analysis

CNBC (Georg Hochmuth | AFP | Getty Images) reports that U.S. PCE data shows 3.8% YoY inflation through April and a 0.4% MoM rise, with gold down 0.6% to $4,428.69 and U.S. futures down 0.5%; Iran-related tensions and a potential Trump-Tehran deal affect energy and inflation expectations.

Go deeper

  • Will tighter inflation readings keep the Fed on hold or push for higher rates?
  • How might energy prices shape gold’s trajectory in coming weeks?
  • What other assets are investors turning to as inflation data updates arrive?

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