What's happened
As of mid-January 2026, Iran faces its largest protests since 2022, sparked by economic grievances and escalating into anti-government demonstrations. Over 640 people have died amid a violent crackdown. The US, led by President Trump, has threatened military action and imposed 25% tariffs on Iran's trade partners. Iran warns it will target US and Israeli forces if attacked. Internet blackouts and diplomatic tensions persist.
What's behind the headline?
Escalating US-Iran Confrontation
The current unrest in Iran is not merely a domestic crisis but a flashpoint in a broader geopolitical struggle. President Trump's administration is leveraging the protests to intensify pressure on Tehran, combining economic sanctions with the looming threat of military intervention. The imposition of 25% tariffs on Iran's trade partners signals a strategic attempt to isolate Iran economically, targeting countries like China, Brazil, Turkey, and Russia.
Iran's Defiant Posture
Iranian leadership, particularly Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, has issued stark warnings that any US attack will be met with retaliation against US and Israeli military assets. This rhetoric underscores Tehran's readiness to escalate conflict beyond its borders, raising the stakes for regional security.
Information Warfare and Control
The Iranian government's internet blackout and communication restrictions aim to stifle protest coordination and control the narrative. However, satellite internet services like Starlink have emerged as critical tools for protesters and external observers, complicating Tehran's information control.
Regional and Global Implications
Israel remains on high alert, closely monitoring US deliberations and the protests, reflecting the intertwined security concerns of the US and its regional ally. The protests also expose vulnerabilities in Iran's domestic stability, which could have ripple effects across the Middle East, especially given Iran's support for proxy groups.
Forecast
The crisis will likely persist with continued violent crackdowns and international pressure. The US may escalate sanctions or cyber operations, but direct military action remains a high-risk option given Iran's retaliatory threats. Diplomatic channels remain tenuous but open, suggesting a complex interplay between confrontation and negotiation in the near term.
What the papers say
Bel Trew in The Independent highlights the US's multifaceted approach, noting that "airstrikes are among the 'many, many options'" President Trump is considering, while also emphasizing that "diplomacy is always the first option." The Independent also reports on Iran's stern response, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stating, "We are ready for war but also for dialogue."
Reuters' Parisa Hafezi provides context on the ongoing protests and the death toll, quoting Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf's warning that "the occupied territories (Israel) as well as all U.S. bases and ships will be our legitimate target" if Iran is attacked. Reuters also details the US and Israeli coordination, including a phone call between Netanyahu and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Arab News focuses on the internal dynamics, describing the protests as the "biggest demonstrations since 2022" and quoting opposition voices like Reza Pahlavi urging continued resistance. It also notes Israel's readiness to respond "with power if need be," reflecting regional tensions.
The Times of Israel underscores the severity of the crackdown, citing human rights groups reporting hundreds of deaths and deliberate tactics such as shooting protesters in the eyes. It also reports on calls within the EU to designate Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization.
France 24 provides insight into Iran's domestic propaganda efforts and the government's clampdown, including the internet blackout and threats of death penalties for protesters, illustrating Tehran's hardline stance.
Together, these sources paint a picture of a volatile situation with high stakes for regional and global security, marked by a deadly crackdown, international diplomatic maneuvering, and the looming threat of military conflict.
How we got here
Protests erupted in Iran on December 28, 2025, initially over soaring prices but quickly expanded to challenge the clerical regime. The government responded with a harsh crackdown, including internet blackouts and arrests. The US and Israel have accused Iran of fomenting regional instability, while Iran blames foreign interference. The situation escalated after a brief 12-day war last June involving US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
Go deeper
- What are the main causes of the protests in Iran?
- How is the US responding to the situation in Iran?
- What risks does the conflict pose to regional stability?
Common question
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Why Are Iran's Protests the Largest Since 2022?
Iran is currently experiencing its biggest wave of protests since 2022, with over 192 people reported killed. These demonstrations, initially sparked by economic hardship, have grown into a challenge against the ruling regime. Many wonder what’s driving this surge and what it means for Iran’s future. Below, we explore the reasons behind these protests, Iran’s threats against the US and Israel, and the international response.
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What’s Next for US Foreign Policy and Global Tensions?
Recent developments in US foreign policy have significant implications for global stability. From the US's control over Venezuela's oil to escalating tensions with Iran and the capture of Maduro, these events raise important questions about future international relations. In this page, we explore what these actions mean for the world and what to watch for next.
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How Are Current Global Conflicts Impacting Markets and Security?
Recent geopolitical developments, including US interventions in Venezuela, Iran's protests, and Russia's drone attacks, are shaping the world in profound ways. These events raise questions about their effects on oil prices, regional stability, and global markets. Below, we explore the key issues and what they mean for investors and everyday citizens alike.
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Why Are US-Iran Tensions Escalating Now?
Recent events have pushed the US and Iran closer to conflict, with protests, economic sanctions, and military threats all playing a role. Many wonder what’s behind this surge in tensions and what it could mean for global stability. Below, we explore the key reasons for the escalation and what might happen next.
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