What's happened
A Russian poll indicates 70% of respondents expect 2026 to be more successful for Russia, with 55% linking this hope to an end to the Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, Russia claims territorial gains, but independent assessments suggest limited advances. The political and military outlook remains uncertain.
What's behind the headline?
Strategic Narrative
The Russian government is shaping a narrative of impending success and stability for 2026, emphasizing the potential end of the Ukraine conflict. This aligns with official messaging that highlights military achievements and national interests.
Public Sentiment and Propaganda
The VTsIOM survey shows a significant portion of Russians are optimistic about the future, possibly influenced by state-controlled media and government messaging. The 55% linking hope to ending the war suggests a desire for resolution, but independent polls indicate economic dissatisfaction and public frustration.
Military Reality vs. Claims
While President Putin claims territorial gains in Ukraine, independent assessments from the Institute for the Study of War suggest these claims are exaggerated, with actual advances being limited. This discrepancy indicates a possible information war, where official narratives may not fully reflect on-the-ground realities.
Geopolitical Implications
The ongoing negotiations and conflicting claims highlight the complex diplomatic landscape. The US and Ukraine remain divided over territorial concessions, with Ukraine demanding full control of its regions and Russia insisting on territorial recognition. The potential for escalation or negotiated settlement remains uncertain, but the story underscores the importance of international diplomacy and the risks of misinformation.
Future Outlook
The coming months will likely see continued military activity, diplomatic negotiations, and domestic propaganda efforts. The economic slowdown and public dissatisfaction could influence political stability in Russia, while Ukraine's resilience and Western support remain critical factors in the conflict's trajectory.
What the papers say
The articles from The Japan Times, Business Insider UK, and Al Jazeera provide a comprehensive view of Russia's internal optimism, military claims, and diplomatic efforts. The Japanese source emphasizes public optimism linked to the potential end of the Ukraine conflict, quoting Mikhail Mamonov on the perceived success of Russia's military objectives. Business Insider UK highlights the gap between official claims and independent assessments, noting the limited territorial gains and the ongoing negotiations between Ukraine and Western allies. Al Jazeera offers insight into President Putin's claims of territorial advances, contrasting them with independent estimates from the Institute for the Study of War, which suggest much smaller gains. The coverage underscores the divergence between official narratives and on-the-ground realities, illustrating the complex information environment surrounding the conflict.
How we got here
The articles reflect ongoing developments in Russia's political and military landscape. Public opinion surveys show growing optimism about ending the Ukraine war, driven by perceived military progress and geopolitical factors. Russia's military claims territorial gains, but independent sources question the extent of these advances. Diplomatic negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, and Western powers continue amid ongoing conflict and economic pressures.
Go deeper
Common question
-
What Does the Future Hold for Russia and Ukraine in 2026?
As 2025 comes to a close, many are wondering what the next year will bring for Russia and Ukraine. Will Russia's optimism translate into real progress, or are the claims of territorial gains exaggerated? How reliable are the current polls and reports? This page explores the key questions about the ongoing conflict and what we can expect in 2026.
-
What Are the Main Global Risks in 2026?
As we look ahead to 2026, many are wondering what the biggest challenges and risks the world might face. From ongoing conflicts to economic pressures, understanding these risks can help us prepare for what’s to come. Below, we explore the key issues shaping the global outlook for 2026 and answer common questions about the future of geopolitics, economy, and international stability.
-
How Do Rising Debt and Ongoing Wars Impact Global Stability?
Rising national debts and ongoing conflicts around the world are shaping the future of global stability. As countries grapple with economic pressures and military tensions, many wonder how these factors influence international peace and security. Below, we explore key questions about the effects of rising debt levels and war on the world's stability and what experts are saying about future risks.
-
What to Expect in 2026: Will War, Economy, and Politics Shape the Year?
As 2026 approaches, many are wondering what the year will bring. Will we see a shift towards peace or more conflict? How will economic policies impact daily life? Here’s a look at the key questions and insights shaping the future of global politics, economy, and conflict in 2026.
More on these topics
-
Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy is a Ukrainian politician, actor and comedian who is the 6th and current president of Ukraine, serving since May 2019.
-
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008.
-
Russia, or the Russian Federation, is a transcontinental country located in Eastern Europe and Northern Asia. Covering an area of 17,125,200 square kilometres, it is the largest country in the world by area, spanning more than one-eighth of the Earth's in
-
Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It is the second-largest European country after Russia, which borders it to the east and northeast.