Large drone and missile barrages continue

What's happened

Since late April 2026, Russia and Ukraine have been exchanging sustained drone and missile attacks that have killed civilians, damaged ports, hospitals and housing, and struck energy infrastructure on both sides. Overnight into 5 May, strikes have hit Ukrainian energy facilities and cities and Ukrainian forces have struck major Russian oil and industrial sites.

What's behind the headline?

What is happening now

• Large, coordinated strikes are becoming routine: Russia is launching hundreds of attack drones plus ballistic missiles; Ukraine is responding with long-range drones and strikes on Russian energy and port infrastructure.

Why the pattern is intensifying

• Attacks are focusing on economic and logistical targets. Russia is hitting ports and hospitals to damage export capacity and civilian infrastructure; Ukraine is hitting refineries and tankers to reduce Russian export revenue. This will further constrain energy flows and raise repair costs.

Military-technical implication

• Ukraine is repeatedly saying it is intercepting the majority of incoming drones, but it has said it still lacks sufficient systems to intercept ballistic missiles; this will keep producing lethal gaps. Russia will continue using mass drone waves and some ballistic missiles because that will overwhelm layered defences in places.

Domestic and diplomatic consequences

• Continued strikes on civilian infrastructure will increase internal displacement and humanitarian needs and will push Kyiv to press partners for more air-defence systems and finance. Russia will keep prioritising strikes that can produce visible disruption ahead of symbolic dates.

Short-term forecast

• Strikes will continue nightly. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and tankers will increase pressure on Russian exports and will likely prompt further Russian air-defence responses and claims of high interception rates. Civilian casualties and infrastructure damage will remain significant and will keep driving international calls for more defensive aid to Ukraine.

How we got here

The conflict has been exchanging high-volume drone and missile attacks nightly since Russia's February 2022 invasion. Both sides are targeting energy and transport infrastructure: Russia is striking Ukrainian ports, hospitals and cities; Ukraine is striking Russian refineries, terminals and border regions to disrupt revenues and logistics.

Our analysis

The accounts broadly agree on the pattern of reciprocal, high-volume attacks but emphasise different targets. Al Jazeera reports that Naftogaz's CEO Serhiy Koretskyi has said a combined UAV-and-ballistic strike has killed three employees and two rescue workers, wounded 37 and cut gas supply to nearly 3,500 customers; Al Jazeera also reports Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying Russia showed "utter cynicism" by announcing a ceasefire and then launching attacks. Reuters and France 24 report regional governor Oleh Syniehubov saying an Iskander-type ballistic missile struck civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv region, killing five and wounding others; Reuters published photos of damaged houses and emergency responses. The Moscow Times and AFP-sourced pieces report Russia firing large drone salvos and Ukraine striking Russian oil and port infrastructure, with The Moscow Times quoting Zelenskyy on strikes against so-called shadow tankers and reporting Russian claims of downing hundreds of Ukrainian drones. These sources together show agreement on scale and mutual targeting of energy and civilian infrastructure; where they differ is emphasis—Ukrainian and Western outlets highlight Russian damage to Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy, while Russian regional statements emphasise hits on Russian facilities and high interception claims. Direct quotes: Al Jazeera cited Koretskyi saying "This was a combined strike involving UAVs and ballistic missiles"; Reuters quoted Syniehubov saying "the occupiers attacked civilian infrastructure of a town quite far from the front with a missile."

Go deeper

• How are Ukraine's air-defence interception rates calculated and verified?
• What immediate humanitarian aid will be needed for the towns hit this week?

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