What's happened
Regional capitals see Gaza's war as over, marking a political reordering. New alliances aim to exclude Hamas and political Islam, pushing for managed Palestinian reforms. The shift signals a fundamental change in regional stability and governance, with implications beyond Gaza.
What's behind the headline?
The regional recalibration post-Gaza
The articles reveal a consensus among regional powers that the old paradigm of supporting political Islam and non-state actors like Hamas is over. This shift is driven by a desire for stability, economic modernization, and control, rather than democratic ideals. The new order aims to contain chaos by sidelining Hamas and reforming Palestinian governance under external supervision.
This reordering is not merely about Gaza but signals a broader strategic move. Regional leaders from Amman to Riyadh see the exclusion of non-state actors as essential for stability, aligning with Western interests. However, this approach risks deepening Palestinian disenfranchisement and eroding the legitimacy of existing institutions like the PLO.
The articles also suggest that this shift is not driven solely by regional interests but is a response to the failure of previous policies to produce lasting peace or stability. The regional order now prioritizes governability over justice, which could lead to long-term instability if Palestinian aspirations are sidelined.
Furthermore, the plan for a managed transition in the West Bank indicates a move towards external oversight, which could undermine Palestinian sovereignty. This aligns with a broader regional and global trend of great power competition, where stability is often prioritized over democratic processes.
In conclusion, the new regional order emerging from Gaza's crisis will likely reshape Palestinian politics, marginalize non-state actors, and deepen regional dependencies on external powers. The long-term consequences could include increased disenfranchisement and instability if these reforms are perceived as illegitimate or imposed without genuine Palestinian input.
What the papers say
Al Jazeera emphasizes that regional capitals view the Gaza conflict as a turning point, marking a shift away from supporting Hamas and political Islam, towards stability and controlled modernization. The article highlights plans for external supervision of Palestinian reforms and the marginalization of non-state actors.
South China Morning Post discusses the broader geopolitical shifts, including the end of American unipolarity and the rise of a multipolar world. It underscores how regional and global powers are recalibrating their strategies, with a focus on managed competition rather than conflict, and highlights the internal US transformations under Trump and the ongoing US-China rivalry.
While Al Jazeera focuses on regional political reordering in the Middle East, the South China Morning Post provides context on global power shifts that influence regional dynamics. Both sources suggest a move away from chaos and conflict towards managed stability, but from different angles—regional governance versus global power competition.
How we got here
The recent conflict in Gaza has prompted regional and international actors to reconsider their approach to Palestinian politics. Historically, the region has seen fluctuating support for Hamas and political Islam, but the current crisis has accelerated efforts to exclude non-state actors from formal politics. The Arab states, along with Western powers, now favor stability and controlled modernization, leading to plans for a managed transition in the West Bank and Gaza. This shift is driven by a desire to contain chaos and ensure governability, with regional leaders viewing the current order as unsustainable. The Palestinian Authority faces pressure to reform or risk marginalization, while the long-standing PLO risks becoming symbolic. These developments are part of a broader regional recalibration, with implications for regional stability and Palestinian sovereignty.
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Common question
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What is the latest on Gaza's political shift?
Recent developments in Gaza signal a significant shift in regional politics, with new alliances forming and efforts to exclude Hamas and political Islam from governance. This change impacts regional stability and raises questions about future Palestinian reforms. Curious about what’s happening and what it means for the Middle East? Read on to find out more.
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