What's happened
The IMF reports that the global economy is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2025, slightly higher than July forecasts, amid ongoing trade tensions and tariffs. While growth is better than feared, uncertainties from tariffs and protectionism continue to weigh on long-term expansion.
What's behind the headline?
The IMF's latest outlook indicates a nuanced picture of the global economy. While growth has slightly improved, driven by pre-tariff stockpiling and a weaker dollar, the underlying risks remain. The ongoing trade war, especially US tariffs on multiple partners, continues to inject uncertainty into investment and supply chains. The IMF warns that the full impact of tariffs is still unfolding, with potential inflationary pressures and further economic disruptions. Countries have shown resilience by implementing decisive policies and adapting, but the persistent protectionism could hinder more robust, sustained growth. The surge in gold prices reflects investor anxiety, signaling that economic stability is still fragile. The next phase will depend on how trade tensions evolve and whether policy measures can mitigate long-term damage.
What the papers say
The articles from Bloomberg and the NY Post provide contrasting perspectives. Bloomberg emphasizes that the IMF sees some positive signs, with growth slightly up and the worst fears not materializing yet, citing pre-tariff activity and a weaker dollar as factors. Enda Curran notes that the IMF's forecast has been revised upward, but warns that the full effects of tariffs are still to come, and uncertainties persist. Conversely, the NY Post highlights the broader geopolitical and economic risks, with Kristalina Georgieva warning that uncertainty is the new normal and that the full impact of tariffs and protectionism remains to be seen. She points to rising gold prices as a sign of investor concern and urges policymakers to address debt and competitiveness issues. The divergence lies in Bloomberg's more cautious optimism versus the NY Post's emphasis on ongoing risks and the potential for economic instability.
How we got here
Trade tensions, especially the US-China tariffs imposed in 2018, have created global economic uncertainty. The IMF's previous forecasts predicted slower growth due to these tariffs and protectionist policies. Recent data suggests some resilience, but the long-term impact remains uncertain as tariffs' full effects are yet to unfold.
Go deeper
Common question
-
How Will the Global Economy Grow in 2025 Despite Trade Tensions?
The global economy is showing signs of resilience in 2025, with forecasts indicating growth despite ongoing trade tensions and tariffs. But what does this mean for markets, businesses, and consumers? Here, we explore the key factors influencing economic growth this year, the impact of trade policies, and the opportunities that still exist amid uncertainty.
More on these topics
-
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an international financial institution and a specialized agency of the United Nations, headquartered in Washington, D.C. It consists of 191 member countries, and its stated mission is "working to foster global...
-
Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.