What's happened
As of mid-July 2025, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have agreed on a pilot 'one-in, one-out' migration scheme. The deal allows the UK to return migrants arriving by small boats to France while accepting asylum seekers with legitimate UK claims. The scheme aims to disrupt people-smuggling networks amid record Channel crossings.
What's behind the headline?
Strategic Breakthrough Amidst Complex Challenges
The UK-France 'one-in, one-out' pilot scheme marks a significant diplomatic achievement for Keir Starmer's government, succeeding where previous Conservative administrations faltered. By agreeing to return a limited number of migrants arriving illegally by small boats to France, while accepting asylum seekers with legitimate claims, the deal aims to disrupt the lucrative people-smuggling networks exploiting the Channel route.
Limitations and Legal Hurdles
However, the pilot's initial scale—around 50 returns per week, a fraction of total crossings—limits its immediate deterrent effect. The selection criteria for returns remain unclear, and legal challenges are anticipated, particularly regarding the safety and human rights compliance of returns to France. Opposition from other EU countries, notably Italy, Spain, and Greece, complicates broader acceptance and implementation.
Political and Humanitarian Dimensions
The deal reflects a pragmatic shift from punitive measures like the Rwanda scheme towards a more cooperative, albeit cautious, approach. Yet, refugee charities criticize the agreement for conceding to far-right narratives and risking lives by focusing on enforcement over safe routes. Macron's emphasis on shared responsibility and the UK's commitment to increased border enforcement underscore the political pressures both leaders face domestically.
Forecast and Impact
If successfully implemented and scaled, the scheme could reduce Channel crossings and human tragedies. However, its success depends on legal validation, operational clarity, and broader European cooperation. For UK residents, the deal signals a government intent on managing migration pragmatically, balancing border security with humanitarian obligations. The ongoing challenge will be maintaining this balance amid political opposition and fluctuating migration flows.
What the papers say
John Crace in The Guardian highlights the diplomatic nuances, noting the formal handshake between Starmer and German Chancellor Merz contrasted with the warmer Macron visit, underscoring the significance of the UK-France treaty. The Guardian's detailed analysis praises the 'quiet, serious diplomacy' yielding tangible results but questions the pilot's limited scope and legal uncertainties. The Independent presents a spectrum of reactions: refugee charities like the Migrants' Rights Network condemn the deal as conceding to 'racist far-right narratives,' while the Refugee Council cautiously welcomes increased cooperation but urges fair implementation. The Mirror offers a more government-aligned perspective, quoting Starmer's combative defense of the plan as a 'breakthrough' to 'break the model' of people-smuggling gangs, and Macron's critique of Brexit's impact on migration control. The New Arab and South China Morning Post provide broader geopolitical context, emphasizing Macron's calls for European unity on defence and migration, and the symbolic restoration of UK-France relations post-Brexit. Together, these sources reveal a complex narrative balancing political pragmatism, humanitarian concerns, and international diplomacy.
How we got here
Since Brexit, the UK lost access to EU-wide migrant returns agreements, complicating efforts to manage Channel crossings. Migrant arrivals via small boats have surged, with over 21,000 crossings in 2025, a 55% increase from 2024. Previous UK governments failed to secure a returns deal with France. Starmer's government pursued a 'one-in, one-out' pilot scheme to deter crossings and offer safe, legal routes for asylum seekers.
Go deeper
- How will the 'one-in, one-out' scheme work in practice?
- What are the main criticisms of the UK-France migration deal?
- How does this deal affect migrants crossing the English Channel?
Common question
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What are the latest developments in migration and border policies?
As migration continues to be a pressing global issue, recent actions taken by countries like the UK and the US have sparked significant discussions. From new tactics to curb Channel crossings in the UK to controversial deportations in the US, these developments raise important questions about the future of migration policies worldwide.
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What are the key outcomes of Macron's state visit to the UK?
French President Emmanuel Macron's recent state visit to the UK has sparked discussions about the future of UK-France relations post-Brexit. This visit addressed critical issues such as defense, immigration, and cultural exchanges, highlighting the need for cooperation between the two nations. Below, we explore the main topics discussed during this significant visit and what they mean for both countries moving forward.
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