What's happened
Since 2022, Western officials have observed a ramp-up in targeted killings linked to Russia's security services. Recent European arrests and prosecutions reveal a pattern of assassinations and sabotage across several countries, with Russian proxies involved in plots against activists, Ukrainian supporters and others.
What's behind the headline?
Critical analysis
- The reporting consistently links alleged plots to Russia's military intelligence (GRU) and to proxies recruited for operations in Europe, suggesting a state-backed campaign rather than isolated incidents.
- The narrative is shaped by multiple sources, including Western intelligence officials and prosecutors, who describe political authorization behind the operations. This raises questions about the extent of Kremlin control and the risk of escalation across the continent.
- Readers should consider how these clandestine actions fit into broader geopolitical aims: deterring support for Ukraine, intimidating dissidents, and consuming European law-enforcement resources.
- Forecast: authorities will intensify border and cyber measures, while Russia will likely persist with proxy-based operations to complicate attribution and sanctions enforcement.
How we got here
The pattern of plots against Russian activists and foreign supporters of Ukraine across Europe has emerged alongside arrests and prosecutions in Lithuania, Germany and Poland. Investigations trace these acts to Russia's military intelligence services and show a shift toward using proxies to intimidate opponents abroad.
Our analysis
The Independent reports on Osechkin and Cyril’s case against a backdrop of a broader European crackdown; The Associated Press provides court documents and statements from Lithuanian prosecutors; The New York Times covers Lithuania's arrests tied to GRU plots and the broader Western assessment of the threat; The Washington-designed ISW analysis is cited regarding Putin-era security tightening. Direct quotes and attributions are included in each piece.
Go deeper
- What protections are in place for political dissidents in Europe now?
- Which countries are most targeted, and what defenses are being built?
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Dmitry Peskov - Kremlin Press Secretary
Dmitry Sergeyevich Peskov is a Russian diplomat, translator and Turkologist. Since 2012, Peskov has been the Press Secretary for the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin.