What's happened
The International Institute for Strategic Studies has warned during the Shangri-La Dialogue that the world is on the cusp of a new nuclear arms race, with the Asia-Pacific at its core. Regional states are expanding nuclear arsenals while non-nuclear states pursue long-range conventional capabilities, challenging strategic stability.
What's behind the headline?
What this means for readers
- The Asia-Pacific is central to the shift in nuclear postures, with both China and the U.S. expanding capabilities.
- Taiwan remains a flashpoint; China views it as a breakaway province, while the U.S. is reassessing commitments in the region.
- The IISS highlights a lack of agreed rules of engagement that could prevent escalation to nuclear use.
- Expect more defence diplomacy focused on risk-reduction and crisis communication in the near term.
Why this matters now
- The Shangri-La Dialogue is a key venue where these doctrines are discussed openly; outcomes could influence alliance behavior and arms-control efforts.
- The global balance of power could shift if nuclear and long-range conventional capabilities continue to grow in the region.
How we got here
The IISS release follows the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where leaders, ministers, and analysts gather. The report links China’s posture toward Taiwan and broader U.S.-China tensions to potential nuclear escalation, noting limited public signs of guard rails in major militaries.
Our analysis
The Japan Times by Greg Torode; The Independent by Shweta Sharma; Reuters by Greg Torode; all 28 May 2026. The IISS assessment is central to each piece, providing the linking narrative on nuclear posture changes and Taiwan implications.
Go deeper
- What steps are leaders taking to reduce risk in Taiwan scenarios?
- How will NATO or other alliances respond to shifts in Asia-Pacific nuclear postures?
- What indicators should readers watch for that signal a real arms race is accelerating?
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Taiwan, officially the Republic of China, is a country in East Asia. Neighbouring countries include the People's Republic of China to the northwest, Japan to the northeast, and the Philippines to the south.
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The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) is an international research institute or think tank focusing on defence and security issues. Since 1997, its headquarters have been at Arundel House in London. It has offices on four continents, producing data and research on questions of defence, security and global affairs, publishing publications and online analysis, and convening major security summits. The Guardian newspaper has described the IISS as 'one of the world's leading security think tanks.' The current Director-General and Chief Executive is Bastian Giegerich while Sir John Chipman is the Executive Chairman. The 2017 Global Go To Think Tank Index ranked IISS as the tenth-best think tank worldwide and the second-best Defence and National Security think tank globally; Think Tank Alert ranked it as the top, most-cited non-US-based think tank in 2025; while Transparify ranked it third-largest UK think tank by expenditure, but gave it its lowest rating, describing it as deceptive on funding transparency.
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