What's happened
The International Institute for Strategic Studies has warned during the Shangri-La Dialogue that the world is on the cusp of a new nuclear arms race, with the Asia-Pacific at its core. Regional states are expanding nuclear arsenals while non-nuclear states pursue long-range conventional capabilities, challenging strategic stability.
What's behind the headline?
What this means for readers
- The Asia-Pacific is central to the shift in nuclear postures, with both China and the U.S. expanding capabilities.
- Taiwan remains a flashpoint; China views it as a breakaway province, while the U.S. is reassessing commitments in the region.
- The IISS highlights a lack of agreed rules of engagement that could prevent escalation to nuclear use.
- Expect more defence diplomacy focused on risk-reduction and crisis communication in the near term.
Why this matters now
- The Shangri-La Dialogue is a key venue where these doctrines are discussed openly; outcomes could influence alliance behavior and arms-control efforts.
- The global balance of power could shift if nuclear and long-range conventional capabilities continue to grow in the region.
How we got here
The IISS release follows the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where leaders, ministers, and analysts gather. The report links China’s posture toward Taiwan and broader U.S.-China tensions to potential nuclear escalation, noting limited public signs of guard rails in major militaries.
Our analysis
The Japan Times by Greg Torode; The Independent by Shweta Sharma; Reuters by Greg Torode; all 28 May 2026. The IISS assessment is central to each piece, providing the linking narrative on nuclear posture changes and Taiwan implications.
Go deeper
- What steps are leaders taking to reduce risk in Taiwan scenarios?
- How will NATO or other alliances respond to shifts in Asia-Pacific nuclear postures?
- What indicators should readers watch for that signal a real arms race is accelerating?
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