What's happened
Last year's 12-day Israel-Iran war weakened Iran's military but did not neutralize its capabilities. As tensions escalate again, the risk of broader conflict increases, with Iran potentially targeting US bases, oil infrastructure, and shipping lanes. The US and Israel maintain military superiority, but regional retaliation remains a concern.
What's behind the headline?
The recent escalation underscores Iran's resilience despite significant setbacks in last year's war. Israel's airstrikes degraded Iran's medium- and long-range missile capabilities but left its short-range missile stock largely intact, maintaining a threat to nearby US bases and Israel itself. The US and Israel's military dominance is clear, with American stealth aircraft and Israeli advanced fighters able to operate freely in the region. However, Iran's potential to escalate by targeting oil infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz, or US naval assets remains high if Tehran perceives its regime's survival is at stake. The strategic calculus suggests Iran will likely pursue asymmetric retaliation, increasing regional instability. The broader geopolitical landscape, shaped by US focus on China and regional alliances, indicates that while large-scale conflict is unlikely, regional tensions will persist, requiring vigilant military preparedness.
What the papers say
The Times of Israel highlights Iran's remaining missile capabilities and the US and Israel's operational freedom, emphasizing the risk of future escalation. The Independent echoes these points, noting Iran's ability to rebuild missile stockpiles and the limited impact of Israeli strikes on short-range missiles. Both sources agree that Iran's military outnumbers Israel's but that Israel's technological edge and US support provide a strategic advantage. The New Arab offers a broader geopolitical perspective, explaining that US policy has shifted post-2008 towards containment and regional stability, reducing the likelihood of large-scale war despite rhetoric and military build-up. It underscores that US actions are now more about coercive diplomacy than direct invasion, with regional actors taking on more responsibility. The contrasting views reveal a consensus on Iran's resilience but differ slightly on the likelihood of imminent conflict, with some emphasizing the risks of escalation and others highlighting strategic restraint.
How we got here
The 2025 conflict began when Israel launched strikes on Iran's nuclear and military sites, prompting US involvement with bunker-buster bombs. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks, but Israel and the US avoided direct confrontation with Iran's air force. The war revealed Iran's remaining missile capacity and its ability to retaliate regionally, despite Israeli strikes targeting its missile launchers and defenses. The broader context involves ongoing US efforts to contain Iran while managing regional alliances and threats.
Go deeper
Common question
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Is Iran Planning New Attacks After Recent Israel-Iran Conflict?
Following the recent escalation between Israel and Iran, many are wondering if Iran is planning further attacks. With Iran still possessing significant missile capabilities and regional tensions high, the risk of renewed conflict remains. People are asking whether Iran will target US bases, oil shipping lanes, or escalate the regional conflict further. Below, we explore the current situation and answer common questions about the potential for future violence.
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The United States of America, commonly known as the United States or America, is a country mostly located in central North America, between Canada and Mexico.
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Iran, also called Persia, and officially the Islamic Republic of Iran, is a country in Western Asia. It is bordered to the northwest by Armenia and Azerbaijan, to the north by the Caspian Sea, to the northeast by Turkmenistan, to the east by Afghanistan a
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Israel, formally known as the State of Israel, is a country in Western Asia, located on the southeastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea and the northern shore of the Red Sea.