What's happened
Chocolate prices are set to rise by 10-20% in 2025 due to record cocoa bean prices, which have increased over 143% since January 2024. Factors include climate change, crop diseases, and supply shortages, impacting both consumers and producers globally.
What's behind the headline?
Key Factors Driving Price Increases
- Record Cocoa Prices: Cocoa bean prices have surged to over $17,000 per tonne, with peaks nearing $20,000. This marks a dramatic increase from around $7,200 per tonne just a year ago.
- Supply Shortages: Three consecutive years of supply deficits, exacerbated by diseases like the cacao swollen-shoot virus, have severely impacted production, particularly in West Africa.
- Consumer Impact: As Easter approaches, consumers can expect retail prices for chocolate to rise by up to 20%. Many manufacturers are also resorting to 'shrinkflation', reducing product sizes while maintaining prices.
- Market Dynamics: The chocolate industry is facing a perfect storm of rising costs and changing consumer behavior, with many shoppers seeking deals or opting for alternatives due to higher prices. This trend is likely to persist as the full impact of cocoa price hikes is felt throughout 2025.
What the papers say
According to Kelly Tyko from Axios, chocolate prices are expected to rise by 10-20% this year, driven by a staggering 143% increase in cocoa prices since January 2024. Tyko notes that major manufacturers are preparing for these hikes, as many purchase cocoa in advance, meaning current prices won't reflect until later in the year. Meanwhile, Sandra Fulloon from SBS highlights the plight of boutique chocolate makers like Philippe Smets, who are forced to increase prices due to rising raw material costs. Fulloon emphasizes that 70% of Smets' chocolate bars consist of cocoa, making them particularly vulnerable to price fluctuations. In contrast, The Independent's report underscores the broader implications of these price hikes, linking them to climate change and the economic struggles of cocoa farmers, particularly in West Africa. Bart Van Besien from Oxfam notes that these unprecedented prices have not been seen in 50 years, reflecting a complex interplay of environmental and economic factors affecting the chocolate industry.
How we got here
Cocoa prices have soared due to a combination of climate change, crop diseases, and supply shortages, particularly in West Africa. This has led to significant price increases for chocolate products as manufacturers adjust to rising costs.
Go deeper
- What are the main reasons for the cocoa price surge?
- How will this impact chocolate manufacturers and consumers?
- Are there any alternatives to traditional chocolate products?
Common question
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Why Are Chocolate Prices Increasing So Much in 2025?
Chocolate lovers are facing a tough year as prices are set to rise significantly. With a staggering increase in cocoa bean prices, many are left wondering what factors are driving this surge and how it will impact their favorite treats. Below, we explore the reasons behind the rising chocolate prices and what consumers can expect moving forward.
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How is Climate Change Impacting Cocoa Production and Chocolate Prices?
Climate change is increasingly affecting global supply chains, particularly in the cocoa industry. As cocoa prices surge due to environmental factors, consumers and producers alike are feeling the impact. This raises important questions about the future of chocolate production and what can be done to support sustainable practices.
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