What's happened
European dependence on US LNG has increased sharply, replacing Russian gas post-Ukraine invasion. This shift, driven by US strategic interests, raises energy security concerns amid low EU reserves and US protectionist policies, with potential for higher costs and geopolitical leverage.
What's behind the headline?
The US-Europe energy relationship is now deeply intertwined with geopolitics. US LNG exports have surged, accounting for 59% of EU imports, up from 5% in 2021, and US energy exports are explicitly framed as a tool of strategic leverage. This dependency benefits US geopolitical aims, allowing it to exert influence over Europe. Meanwhile, Europe's reliance on US LNG contradicts its policy goals of diversification and renewable transition. The low EU gas reserves, combined with tensions over tariffs and trade, threaten a potential energy crisis if winter reserves are depleted or if US-Europe tensions escalate. The UK, outside the EU, faces similar vulnerabilities, highlighting the broader geopolitical risks of this energy dependency. Europe's current strategy risks entrenching US influence at the expense of long-term energy independence and sustainability, making it imperative to accelerate renewable investments and diversify supply sources to mitigate future risks.
What the papers say
The Guardian reports that US LNG imports to Europe increased by 61% in 2025, now making up 59% of EU LNG imports, with US aiming for energy dominance. Politico highlights EU concerns over over-reliance on US gas, noting that this contradicts policies of diversification and renewable growth, and warns of potential US exploitation of dependency. Both sources emphasize that Europe's shift away from Russian gas was driven by the Ukraine conflict and sanctions, but now faces new geopolitical vulnerabilities due to US strategic interests, with some EU diplomats fearing US leverage over energy supplies. The Guardian also notes that the UK, outside the EU, is similarly exposed, relying heavily on US LNG, which underscores the broader geopolitical risks of this dependency.
How we got here
Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU sought to reduce reliance on Russian gas, shifting towards US LNG imports. This transition was accelerated by sanctions on Russian pipelines and Europe's need for alternative energy sources. The US has positioned itself as a key energy supplier, explicitly seeking energy dominance as part of its strategic projection of power.
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