What's happened
Estonia's foreign minister visited Beijing, emphasizing China's leverage over Russia and urging Beijing to pressure Moscow to end the Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, China and Russia reaffirmed their strategic partnership, with China pledging increased investment and economic cooperation despite Western sanctions and declining bilateral trade.
What's behind the headline?
China's Strategic Balancing
China's reaffirmation of its partnership with Russia signals a deliberate effort to counterbalance Western sanctions and influence. By expanding investment and cooperation, China aims to solidify its role as Russia's key economic ally, even as bilateral trade shows signs of decline due to saturation and external pressures.
Russia's Dependence and Western Pressure
Russia relies heavily on China for economic support and strategic backing, especially as Western sanctions tighten. The recent visits underscore Moscow's efforts to deepen ties, including infrastructure projects and increased energy cooperation, which will likely sustain Russia's resilience in the face of Western isolation.
European Concerns and Future Risks
Estonia and other Baltic states see China's support for Russia as a threat to regional security, citing increased Russian drone incursions and airspace violations. The ongoing diplomatic efforts to negotiate a new EU-China trade agreement may be slowed by China's backing of Russia, complicating efforts to diversify supply chains and reduce dependency on China for critical materials.
Forecast
This evolving relationship will likely lead to a more polarized geopolitical landscape, with China and Russia strengthening their alliance while Western nations seek alternative partnerships. The strategic cooperation may also influence global supply chains, especially in high-tech sectors like rare earths, where China holds a dominant position.
What the papers say
Reuters reports that Estonia's foreign minister highlighted China's leverage over Russia and urged Beijing to use this influence to end the Ukraine war. Al Jazeera details China's expanded investment plans with Russia, emphasizing their 'shared strategic choice' despite declining trade and external pressures. The Moscow Times notes that Russia's trade with China is declining for the first time since 2022, amid sanctions and market saturation, but underscores Moscow's view of the relationship as 'very important.' These sources collectively illustrate a complex picture: while China publicly supports Russia and seeks to deepen economic ties, trade figures reveal signs of strain, and European security concerns remain high. The contrasting narratives reflect the delicate balance China is trying to maintain—supporting Moscow while managing its global economic interests.
How we got here
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, China has maintained a close relationship with Moscow, emphasizing a 'no limits' partnership. Despite Western sanctions, China has supplied Russia with dual-use components and increased trade, while also seeking to expand economic cooperation with Russia and counter Western influence. European nations, including Estonia, view China's support for Russia as a significant geopolitical factor.
Go deeper
Common question
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What Does China and Russia’s Growing Alliance Mean for the World?
Recently, China and Russia have been strengthening their partnership, discussing expanded economic, energy, and technological cooperation. Their 'no limits' alliance is raising questions about global power shifts, especially as Western sanctions impact their relationship. Here are some key questions and answers to understand what this growing alliance entails and how it might influence international politics.
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Why Is China Strengthening Ties With Russia Now?
In recent months, China has deepened its strategic partnership with Russia despite Western sanctions and global tensions. Many wonder what motivates this alliance and what it means for the world. Below, we explore the reasons behind China's support for Russia, how it impacts the Ukraine conflict, and what this means for global power dynamics.
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How Does China's Support for Russia Impact Global Politics?
China's deepening ties with Russia amid the Ukraine conflict is reshaping international relations. While China publicly supports Russia and seeks to strengthen economic cooperation, signs of strain and shifting alliances are emerging. This complex relationship raises important questions about future conflicts, diplomatic responses, and the possibility of a new Cold War. Below, we explore the key issues and what they mean for the world today.
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